Three companies have now reported on how people shop and travel: Amazon, Shopify and Uber. Amazon and Shopify show demand that is still growing, but more slowly than the AI businesses next to it, and the market punished both for what it expected to see and did not. Uber, the third to report, was rewarded instead: its gross bookings rose 20% to $59.8 billion and its shares rose 4.9% on 4th November.
Shopping: Amazon's retail business grew 6%, AWS grew 39%
Amazon reported on 29th October that net sales rose 12% to $201.9 billion, or 13% excluding currency, even though the shift of Prime Day into the previous quarter cut growth by about 4 percentage points. Growth in Amazon's retail businesses was more modest, with North America sales up 6% to $112.9 billion and International sales rising 5% to $43.1 billion, or 8% excluding currency. Advertising grew 11% to $19.6 billion, below analysts' forecasts.
Operating income rose to $28.1 billion, a record 13.9% margin, but AWS produced $17.8 billion of it. AWS made up 23% of sales and 63% of operating profit. North America earned $8.7 billion, a margin of 7.7%. Earnings per share were $1.89, against $1.95 a year earlier and about $0.08 below forecasts, partly because the earlier year included $9.5 billion of gains on Anthropic investments.
For the fourth quarter, Amazon guided to net sales of $240 billion to $247 billion, growth of 12% to 16%, and operating income of $28.5 billion to $33.5 billion. The shares fell about 6% after hours, as investors weighed record spending on AI infrastructure: Amazon still expects about $220 billion of capital spending in 2026, and its free cash flow over the past 12 months was negative $42.4 billion.
Apple gave another reading on premium consumer demand. On 2nd November it reported that iPhone revenue rose 17% to $57.6 billion and total revenue rose 12% to $114.5 billion.
Merchants: Shopify's sales volume grew 29%, but less than expected
Shopify reported on 3rd November. Gross merchandise volume, the value of goods sold through its merchants, rose 29% to $119 billion, slightly below analysts' forecast of about $120.1 billion. Revenue rose 32% to $3.74 billion, just short of the $3.75 billion to $3.77 billion expected. Growth is slowing: in the second quarter, revenue rose 34% and gross merchandise volume about 32%.
Profitability held up. Net income was $462 million, earnings per share of $0.49 beat forecasts, and free cash flow margin was 22%. Shopify's guidance was less encouraging: it points to fourth-quarter revenue growth in the low 30s, gross profit growth in the high 20s and a free cash flow margin of about 19%, down from 22%. The shares fell as much as 19% before the open and closed 10.6% lower on PrimeXBT's price.
Mobility: Uber
Uber reported on 4th November, before the US open. In the second quarter it carried 3.9 billion trips, up 18%, gross bookings rose 24% to $58.0 billion and adjusted EBITDA rose 33% to $2.8 billion. For the third quarter it guided to gross bookings of $58.25 billion to $60.25 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $2.86 billion to $2.96 billion.
In the third quarter it carried 4.06 billion trips, up 16%, and gross bookings rose 20% to $59.82 billion, inside that range. Revenue rose 10% to $14.77 billion.
Adjusted EBITDA rose 31% to $2.96 billion, level with the top of its guide, and non-GAAP earnings per share rose 35% to $0.88, also the top of its $0.84 to $0.88 guide. On the reported basis, income from operations rose 30% to $1.45 billion, after $484 million of legal, tax and regulatory charges.
For the fourth quarter, Uber guided to gross bookings of $63.25 billion to $65.25 billion, which is growth of 18% to 22% in constant currency, and to adjusted EBITDA of $3.13 billion to $3.23 billion. On driverless cars, chief executive Dara Khosrowshahi said Uber expects about 700 fully driverless vehicles on its network by the end of 2026 and more than 2,000 in 2027.
Uber's shares rose 4.9% on 4th November, to $69.60 on PrimeXBT's price, after trading between $64.60 and $72.38 during the day.
Demand, profitability and outlook side by side
Amazon (29th Oct) | Shopify (3rd Nov) | Uber (4th Nov) | |
|---|---|---|---|
Demand | Sales +12%; North America +6% | Gross merchandise volume +29% to $119bn | Gross bookings +20% to $59.8bn; trips +16% to 4.06bn |
Profitability | Operating margin 13.9%; North America 7.7% | Free cash flow margin 22%, guided to about 19% | Adjusted EBITDA +31% to $2.96bn; non-GAAP EPS $0.88 |
Fourth-quarter outlook | Sales +12% to +16% | Revenue growth in the low 30s | Gross bookings +18% to +22%, or $63.25bn to $65.25bn |
Reaction | About -6% after hours | -10.6% at the 3rd Nov close | +4.9% at the 4th Nov close |
What to watch in the holiday quarter
The focus now shifts to what each company expects for the fourth quarter. Amazon is guiding to 12% to 16% sales growth, Shopify to growth in the low 30s and Uber to gross bookings growth of 18% to 22%. Two things will show whether shoppers are still spending freely: whether Amazon's North America sales growth moves above 6%, and whether Shopify's gross merchandise volume growth stops slowing from 29%. The next read-across comes from Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales data.
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The next big test
The holiday quarter will provide the next test of consumer demand. Investors will be watching whether Amazon and Shopify can meet their growth forecasts during the busiest shopping period of the year, while Uber's strong bookings and fourth-quarter outlook offer an early indication that demand for mobility services remains healthy.
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