USD/JPY Faces Key Test With FOMC And BoJ Policy Decisions

The USD/JPY was little changed ahead of the FOMC rate decision after it managed to extend its recovery to around 155.00 on Tuesday.  The pair has been recovering from a seven-month low, as US Treasury yields and oil prices have been pushing higher and investors position for a potentially more hawkish Federal Reserve rate decision. Meanwhile the potential for a hawkish Bank of Japan surprise has limited the USD/JPY’s upside for now, relative to other dollar FX major pairs. 

Still, the dollar yen exchange rate could turn decisively bullish if oil continues to press higher and yields don’t fall back. That’s, of course, barring a major surprise with the Fed (e.g., holds rates rather than hike) or BOJ (e.g., hikes 50 instead of 25 bps). 

Rising yields and oil keep USD supported ahead of FOMC

The latest global bond sell-off is becoming increasingly important for USD/JPY. This week, US 10-year Treasury yields have pushed above 5% for the first time since 2007, as surging energy prices, persistent inflation concerns and heavy government borrowing continue to unsettle fixed-income markets. For the yen, the resulting rise in US-Japan yield differentials is an obvious headwind, which is helping to drive the USD/JPY higher again after the recent intervention-related drop. 

The dollar, meanwhile, has also started to benefit from several forces moving in the same direction: firmer front-end rates, elevated oil prices and a softer risk backdrop.

Now, the focus is turning to the Federal Reserve’s decision which is the most important macro event on the economic calendar today.

The Fed is now widely expected to raise rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, with the more important question being whether policymakers validate expectations for another increase later in the year. The renewed oil shock means there is no case for easing any time soon, and that could keep the dollar supported for a long time – especially if incoming inflation or inflation expectations both remain sticky.

Bank of Japan is the key risk

The Bank of Japan, meanwhile, is also expected to follow with a 25bp hike on Friday. But much of the move is already priced in, leaving the yen dependent on the guidance that accompanies it. Unless there is a surprise 50 basis point hike or Governor Ueda signals STRONG confidence in a faster tightening cycle, the BoJ decision may struggle to provide lasting support for the currency.

That leaves USD/JPY outlook vulnerable to a familiar dynamic: a hawkish Fed could encourage investors to rebuild dollar-yen positions, while a less convincing BoJ risks disappointing yen bulls.

Technical analysis and key levels to watch

From a macro viewpoint, the balance of risks remains tiled to the upside for the USD/JPY outlook. But will the technical analysis confirm that view this week?

The USD/JPY has recovered towards 155.00 for now, after gaining sharply from its recent lows. A clean break above this key area (namely 155.00 to 153.30) could target a continuation move towards 156.00-157.00 area, which looks increasingly plausible if Treasury yields remain elevated.

A sustained break above 157.00 could see the pair climb all the way to tests the larger resistance area between 158.00 to 158.60 zone. 

However, if for whatever reason the USD/JPY fails to break back above 155.00 area or fails to hold above that zone after a temporary break higher, then we could see a revisit of the 153.00 level, and possibly even the calendar year-to-date low of 152.10 area.