In wrapping a week ago, we wrote that we’d be on a short fuse this time ’round, even as ’tis a month-end edition of The Gold Update, (normally lengthier that the standard weekly editions). Thus time being of the essence, (and with Squire away on voluntary fire duty), we’re dispensing with the usual verbosity’s wisdom and wit by going this week via a point-by-point format, plus for you a rare earlier posting bonus! Ready?
Gold: Per Wednesday’s Prescient Commentary, the COMEX futures “front month” contract made its annual four-month leap from August to December, incorporating +60 points of fresh premium into price. So, although the December’s settle yesterday (Friday) at 4099 is higher that last week’s August settle of 4056, Gold in fact netted a mild down week of -17 points (-0.4%) rather than the premium’s injection kidding us with a +43 points (+1.1%) gain. Whilst 60 points is less than Gold’s current expected daily trading range of 86 points, in charting by the “continuous contract”, we dutifully indicate the discrepancy below in the weekly bars graphic from a year ago-to-date. Regardless, the red-dotted parabolic trend remains Short through now 20 weeks, although we still perceive price as (hopefully) fostering a floor:
Gold n’ PM Equities: Amongst primary precious metal equities also from a year ago-to-date, their respective percentage tracks now rank as follows: Pan American Silver (PAAS) +58%, the Global X Silver Miners exchange-traded fund (SIL) +54%, Newmont (NEM) +50%, the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners exchange-traded fund (GDX) +43%, Franco-Nevada (FNV) +35%, Gold itself +25%, and Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) +18%:
The Fed n’ Inflation: This past Wednesday, the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee disputedly voted to maintain the Bank’s Funds rate within the 3.50%-to-3.75% targeted range. Our believing for better than two years that a rate raise would be appropriate, we recently (again) resigned ourselves to the fact that the FOMC would stand pat. Yet, (per Thursday’s Precious Commentary) “…we were encouraged that three FOMC members voted to raise…”: Hammack, Kashkari and Logan. That acknowledged, come the 16 September Policy Statement, we might not only witness further dissention amongst the 12 voters, but directional disagreement as well. To wit, per our inflation summary for June, the average 12-month summation is an “ought raise” +4.0% … but the average annualized pace specific only to June is an “ought cut” deflationary -1.0% Stay tuned(!):
The BEGOS Markets’ Standings: Turning to our BEGOS Markets’ Standings through these first seven months of 2026, Silver — her having topped the chart at January’s end — has since been relegated to the basement. And for how much longer can the S&P 500 maintain double-digit percentage increases year-after-year? Meanwhile as the war wears on, Big Oil continues to rule the roost:
The BEGOS Markets’ Trends: As to the near-term trends, we go ’round the horn for all eight BEGOS components by their daily bars from 21-days (one month) ago-to-date. Save perhaps for our always welcome rookie readers, you already know the baby blue dots determine the consistency of the respective diagonal grey trend lines. Thus therein, Oil and Copper are the most consistently up, the Bond most consistently down, and the balance of the bunch a consistent mess:
The Econ Baro n’ S&P 500: Both the Economic Barometer and S&P 500 have at best been in sideways trends these last three months, characterized by war worries, rate worries, and denial of what ought well be earnings worries. Of last week’s 11 incoming Econ Baro metrics, just four were better period-over-period. Worse, Q2’s first peek at Gross Domestic Product ex-inflation was only +1.5%; add back the Chain Deflator of a whopping +6.3% (the highest since coming out of COVID during Q2 of 2022) and 81% of Q2 GDP total “growth” was by inflation rather than improvement. (We wonder if that was mentioned on FoxyB, Bloomy, CNBS, et alia…). And as for an “ignorance is bliss” Q2 Earnings Season, the numbers thus far look great: of the 289 S&P 500 constituents having reported, 79% have bettered their year-over-year quarterly bottom lines. But: with the honestly-calculated S&P price/earnings ratio (ttm-basis) having settled yesterday at 41.3x, paying $41 for something that earns $1 — plus the risk of principal loss — isn’t our cup of tea. Here are the Baro and S&P for you to see:
Gold n’ Silver Profiles: Of course, precious metals investing is not also without periods of significant risk for principal loss. Regardess, just briefly century-to-date, yield-less Gold is +1,397% and Silver +1,145%, whereas the S&P is +839% including reinvestment of dividends, else ’tis +467% ex-dividends, including having weathered two -50% corrections (the DotComBomb and FinCrisis). Is the next one nigh? Just askin’… Currently somewhat awry are the precious metals prices, both Gold (below left) and Silver (below right) entrapped within their congestive 10-day Market Profiles. For Gold, the prices are basis December, (Silver’s are still September):
Gold Structure: Naturally, it being month-end, here next we’ve the Gold Structure by the monthly “continuous contract” candles across the past six years. The rightmost candle (July 2026) is the stubbiest by both points (253) and range (6.4% low-to-high) since August a year ago. This overall broader-term view is in a technically-negative stance; should a “floor” not form through here, further skidding toward 3500 may be in the bidding:
The Finish featuring FinMedia Follies: Following Wednesday’s FOMC Policy Statement and FedHead Warsh presser, the S&P 500 recorded an intra-day drop of -1.8%, after which we noted these few assessments from the FinMedia, (with our parenthetical quips):
Bloomy: “Nasdaq 100 enters correction”, (after having already been “correcting” for the prior eight weeks);
Barron’s: “…historic crash…” and DJNW: “…Savage Selloff…”, (again we’re talking here about a -1.8% intra-day S&P pullback; they’ve no idea of what “savage” nor “historic” is; across the last 46 years there have been over 1,000 worse intra-day S&P drops … yeah, we did the math);
Bloomy: “Why fresh volatility means a ‘valuation opportunity’ is opening up in U.S. stocks”, (’tis called going Short).
With today’s short writing fuse at its end, we leave you with this time-honoured reminder: “Complacency breeds failure”, –[Andy Grove, ’96]. No kidding. Go with Gold!
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