Is Gold’s Weekly Long Trend Nearing Its End?

Recall on 14 August, confirmation of Gold’s weekly parabolic Short trend having — after 21 weeks — flipped back to Long at 4432; the next day we enthusiastically penned “Still Higher Gold Ahead“, which included the following table…

…by which we “conservatively” assessed, rationalized, and summarized “…from here at 4432 we’d reach Gold 4959 during this Long trend…” We also used, per the above table’s median +11.9% price increase, the 15-week median time span to reach that target by 27 November.

“But, the trend isn’t over, mmb…”

To be sure, dear Squire, the weekly parabolic Long trend remains in force, now five weeks in duration, with price having already swiftly traveled to as high as 4755 on 25 August.

BUT: as herein directly depicted a week ago, three consecutive down weeks within a Gold weekly parabolic Long trend almost always portend its end is ’round the bend, this current trio being net losses of -3.4%, -0.6% and another -1.9% for this past week.

“Well, mmb, that middle week wasn’t really much of a down move.”

To Squire’s point, the -0.6% drop for the week that ended 04 September might be considered nothing more than “noise”: such a net drop of just -27 points came within our expected weekly trading range of then 237 points (the actual coming in almost precisely at 229 points and price settling +147 points above the intra-week low as buyers came to the fore).

But that was then; this most recent week now having settled yesterday (Friday) at 4390, obviously below where the still-long trend had begun to ascend. Yet in turning to Gold’s weekly bars and parabolic trends from one year ago-to-date, price today is a good +275 points above the ensuing week’s flip-to-Short level of 4115, which “technically” is out-of-range given the expected weekly trading range is now 229 points. Therefore, in a week’s time, the trend “ought” still be Long … but perhaps just barely if ’tis not an up week:

Further, ’tis not “fundamentally” the happiest period for Gold. As we well know, the USA/IRN war warrants a bid for Oil to offset potential shortfalls in its availability, in turn eliciting a bid for the Buck, the attractiveness to which may also increase come Wednesday should the Federal Open Market Committee vote to raise its Funds Rate quote. After all, August’s inflation picture is again heating up following the June and July stints of relative cooling. Here’s our partially-completed Summary for August:

So: shall the FOMC really raise on Wednesday? For better than two years we’ve herein pointed out ad nauseam that inflation has been running on balance well above the Fed’s targeted +2% level, even as those in denial have instead clamoured for rate cuts; (here at deMeadville, we oft think we’re the sole entity in the fintech world that actually performs math).

“But what do you think for Wednesday, mmb?”

No change in rates, Squire, even as the European Central Bank did raise on Thursday. Yes, per the above graphic’s “Averages” row, StateSide inflation is running at double the Fed’s desired pace. Yet FedHead Kevin “The Warrior” Warsh does have a card up his sleeve to give the FOMC a reprieve for standing pat beyond this 16 September Policy Statement until the next one scheduled for 28 October: ’tis the “Fed-favoured” inflation gauge for August’s Personal Consumption Expenditures, which shan’t be reported until 30 September. “Better to wait and see, you see?”

Too, there’s the political ire that a rate increase would inspire: “Well I’m sorry, but I’m going to have to shoot you.” –[Monty Python, “The Cheese Shop”, ’72] … ( just a little humour there, folks).

Thus, should the FOMC maintain its current 3.50%-3.75% Fed Funds rate range, that could sufficiently gird Gold into recording an up week, in turn pushing back an otherwise pending change from Long to Short trend, perhaps by month’s end. But broader-term, the war remains a pressure issue on Gold should the Dollar benefit from the Oil bid, especially if (given what is being reported) the conflict extends through next year and potentially beyond.

As to “The Now”, here we’ve Gold’s two-panel chart featuring the daily bars from three months ago to date on the left and the 10-day Market Profile on the right. Those of you who follow our daily Prescient Commentary have already been aware of the anticipated rotation for Gold’s 21-day regression trend from positive to negative, which was confirmed at Thursday’s close. ‘Tis denoted in the graphic by the baby blue dots of trend consistency having passed below their 0% axis. And with respect to the Profile, there is now significant overhead volume-dominant resistance spanning from 4414 up to 4471; it doesn’t look like a lot of fun:

Such is the similar state of Silver, having settled the week at 65.02. Her “Baby Blues” (below left) are on the cusp of the regression trend rotating from positive to negative. By her Profile (below right), volume resistance runs up into the 66s and 67s. Jim Diamond’s ’86 hit “Hi Ho Silver” is instead appearing rather “Lowdown” – (Chicago, ’71). C’mon, ol’ Sister Silver…

Looking next to the Economic Barometer, what a month ago was approaching a seemingly ceaseless slump has since regained some “grunt in the lump”, (F1 expression for engine power). Across the past four weeks, 46 metrics have come into the Baro, of which 28 (61%) have equaled or bettered their respective prior period results, notable standouts including Payrolls, Durable and Factory Orders, Building Permits, Consumer Credit, and the Conference Board’s Leading (i.e. “lagging”) Indicators. Of course, the spanner in the works is inflation: the second of what shall be three readings on Q2 Gross Domestic Product recorded 81% of the 1.5% annualized growth rate as inflation. Query: “Gold Gold?” Here we’ve got the Baro:

Toward our wrap, here’s the Stack:

The Gold Stack (continuous contract pricing):

Gold’s All-Time Intra-Day High: 5586 (29 January 2026)
2026’s High: 5586 (29 January)
Gold’s All-Time Closing High: 5411 (28 January 2026)
10-Session “volume-weighted” average price magnet: 4463
Gold’s BEGOS Market Value (from our opening “Scoreboard”): 4456
Trading Resistance: nearby Market Profile notables: 4414 / 4442 / 4471
Gold currently: 4390 (expected daily trading range [“EDTR”]: 115 points)
Trading Support: nearby Market Profile notables: 4380 / 4356
10-Session directional range: down to 4331 (from 4678) = -347 points or -7.4%
The 300-Day Moving Average: 4269 and rising
The Weekly Parabolic Price to flip Short: 4115
Gold’s Fair Value per Dollar Debasement (from our opening “Scoreboard”): 3992
2026’s Low: 3955 (30 June)
The 2000’s Triple-Top: 2089 (07 Aug ’20); 2079 (08 Mar’22); 2085 (04 May ’23)
The Gateway to 2000: 1900+
The Final Frontier: 1800-1900
The Northern Front: 1800-1750
On Maneuvers: 1750-1579
The Floor: 1579-1466
Le Sous-sol: Sub-1466
The Support Shelf: 1454-1434
Base Camp: 1377
The 1360s Double-Top: 1369 in Apr ’18 preceded by 1362 in Sep ’17
Neverland: The Whiny 1290s
The Box: 1280-1240

And thus we close with just the briefest of questions: Has the S&P crashed yet? Just asking.

As noted in the Econ Baro graphic, “S&P 8000” has been bandied about, notably at very highly visible investment banks due to (as we quote from “AI“) “strong corporate earnings”. If earnings are so “strong”, then why at this writing, is the price/earnings ratio of the S&P 500 (trailing 12-month basis) at 60.8x? (For those of you scoring at home, that is 4x the “acceptable high” of 15x taught in portfolio theory).

“Yeah, mmb, but if you take out just CrowdStrike (CRWD), it drops to 44.1x.”

Squire, ’tis a good point as that company’s P/E settled the week at 5,584.9x, its market capitalization of $211.3B ranking 54th of the 503 constituents comprising the S&P; (or for you WestPalmBeachers down there: paying $206.64 for a stock that earns $0.04 per share is the equivalent of paying $5,584.90 for something that earns $1.00. “Got CRWD?” We hope not).

Indeed, from the deMeadville Valuation & Rankings page, here are our Top Ten goofball P/Es right now: