Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin•
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Probabilities of recession within next 12 months, median from WSJ survey (blue square), from probit using 10yr-3mo Treasury spread (red), and for recession in specifically 12 months ahead (tan).
Figure 1: Probabilities of recession within next 12 months, median from WSJ survey (blue square), from probit using 10yr-3mo Treasury spread (red), and for recession in specifically 12 months ahead (tan). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: WSJ, NBER, author’s calculations.
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