Precious Metals Explode Higher

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Rising expectations of a peace deal with Iran, falling energy prices, a weakening dollar, and soft U.S. employment data sent precious metals and miners sharply higher after a prolonged quiet period.

It’s time for a midweek precious metals update, and it’s a welcome change to report some genuinely positive news after a long stretch in this space. The entire complex surged today on growing hopes of a peace deal with Iran, falling oil prices, a weakening dollar, and two soft U.S. employment reports, with gold rising $173.80 per ounce, or 4.2%, silver up $2.50, or 4.19%, and platinum and palladium both up over 7% in recent days, alongside strong gains in mining stocks and ETFs.

The stage was set for this surge over the weekend when, at the urging of Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern nations, President Trump called off the next wave of even more devastating attacks on Iran. He then announced, alongside U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, that a U.S.–Iran peace deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be reached within the next few days.

While there is still considerable confusion around the situation with Iran and details are still being ironed out, reports indicate that Iran denies direct peace talks with the U.S. and is instead negotiating with Oman over a route for ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The financial markets, including the energy market, are treating this as a very positive development. That said, as we have seen in recent months, caution is still warranted.

So far this week, energy prices have fallen sharply, with WTI crude down 13.5%, Brent crude down 11%, RBOB gasoline futures down roughly 11%, and heating oil/diesel down about 10%. The decline in these refined products is especially impactful for inflation and consumer sentiment, and their persistently high prices had been a major source of stress for the inflation-sensitive bond market, which has since seen some relief as energy prices have pulled back.

The decline in energy prices this week, along with two weak U.S. jobs reports, has helped pull 2026 Fed rate hike expectations down to 64% from a peak of 78% a week ago. On Tuesday, the June JOLTS report showed 7.36 million job openings, down from a revised 7.54 million in May, while Wednesday’s ADP report showed private employers added 44,000 jobs in July, falling short of expectations of 65,000.

On Friday, the key monthly nonfarm payrolls report is expected to show job gains of 83,000 in July with an unemployment rate of 4.2%, and it has the potential to be a market mover. That said, the Fed is currently more focused on inflation than on the labor market.

My point in highlighting these interest rate expectations is that precious metals, as non-yielding assets, are highly sensitive to them. The rapid rise in rate expectations in recent months, driven by the Iran war and the resulting surge in energy prices, has been a major source of downward pressure on precious metals. For that reason, I am watching these expectations closely to see whether they trend lower in response to declining energy prices, which has been the case over the past week.

Now let’s take a look at where precious metals stand, starting with gold, which leads the overall complex. As noted earlier, gold surged $173.80 per ounce, or 4.2%, on Wednesday after more than a month of quiet, low-volume trading.

Gold’s surge today is not surprising to me, as I have been showing how it has held above the key $3,900 to $4,100 support zone, which formed at the lows in October and November 2025, and how it failed to break below that support despite multiple short-lived attempts.

What is notable is that gold and other precious metals have become inured to the steady stream of negative news out of the Middle East and the surge in energy prices, yet have continued to hold their ground. I took this as a sign that a great deal of pessimism had already been priced into precious metals, and too much so in fact, especially considering that they are still in a long-term bull market that began in early 2024 and that such bull markets typically last at least a decade.

It’s also worth noting the spike in volume in COMEX futures during today’s surge in gold, which adds further confirmation that this move is legitimate and marks the start of something new. It shows that large institutional capital (or the “smart money”) is behind the move, as I explained in this tutorial.

I am very pleased to see today’s sharp upward move in gold, and there is a strong chance that this marks the end of the correction that began in late January and the start of the next leg of the bull market, especially once trading volume picks up in September as the financial world returns from vacation mode, since healthy volume is typically necessary to push an asset higher.

That said, I am waiting for another form of confirmation in the form of a decisive, high-volume push through the $4,300 to $4,600 resistance zone just overhead, which formed over a nine-month period from the highs and lows between October and June. Assuming that occurs, the odds of the next leg higher and a strong rally into year-end, not just for gold but for the entire precious metals complex, will increase significantly.

Further confirmation that a major bullish shift is underway for gold is the return of Chinese investor demand. China’s gold-backed ETFs have recorded 14 consecutive days of inflows through Monday, the longest streak since March, attracting more than $1.2 billion over that period.

Moving on to silver, we can see that it surged $2.50 per ounce, or 4.19%, on Wednesday on healthy volume, pushing it back into its $60 to $70 resistance zone that formed from the lows between December and June. This is an excellent development, especially in conjunction with gold’s breakout today.

I am becoming increasingly optimistic that the worst is over for silver and that a new rally is about to begin, but I would still like to see a decisive breakout above the $60 to $70 resistance zone on heavy volume for additional confirmation. As I’ve been saying, we are still in the low-volume summer period, but a rebound in volume in September should be highly beneficial for this nascent rally.

Though many investors became overly pessimistic and threw in the towel on silver after its correction since January, I have remained steadfast in my belief that it is still in a secular bull market that is only about two years old and has at least the better part of a decade to run, taking it into the hundreds of dollars per ounce, as I explained in a recent report.

After a long period in a holding pattern, platinum surged with vigor, rising over 7% on Tuesday and Wednesday on strong volume, and is now back in its $1,700 to $2,000 resistance zone, which formed at key highs and lows since October.

There is a very good chance that brighter days are ahead for platinum, but as with gold and silver, I would like to see it push decisively through the $1,700 to $2,000 resistance zone for further confirmation.