Nowcasting Private NFP Using ADP Data

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Using 2022M01-25M08 data on implied preliminary benchmark private employment, a regression on first log differences yields a unit coefficient, and adjusted R² of 0.56, SER = 0.00087. The resulting nowcast is shown below.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Figure 1: Implied preliminary benchmark revision private nonfarm payroll employment (bold black line), nowcast using ADP series (light blue line), and +/- 1 s.e. (gray lines), all in 000’s, s.a. Source: BLS, ADP via FRED, author’s calculations.

Point estimate for October employment is essentially the same as August (preliminary) reported employment.

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