Image Source: Pexels
 

ADP released +42K private NFP surprises upside (+32K Bloomberg consensus).
 

Figure 1: ADP private NFP, October release (blue), Bloomberg consensus of 10/3 (light blue square), September release (tan), all in 000’s. Source: ADP-Stanford Digital Economy Lab via FRED, Bloomberg, and author’s calculations.
 

In guessing the October total NFP employment, I follow the methodology shown here. Assuming a 100K reduction in government employment due to counting of DRP participants (in August, overall government employment fell 15K), then the BLS measure equals the ADP measure of private NFP, then we get this picture:
 

Figure 2: ADP Private nonfarm payroll employment (blue, left scale), Bloomberg consensus implied employment of 10/3 (light blue square, left scale); BLS benchmark-implied nonfarm payroll employment (black, right scale), implied NFP (chartreuse, right scale), all in 000’s, s.a. Source: ADP, BLS via FRED, and author’s calculations.

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