Gold Could Bounce

Last week, I discussed how SCHD, which has rallied a lot, is risky as a dividend ETF. I suggested that it could keep rallying, but that it is at risk of declining too. SCHD, up 10.8% so far in 2026, fell 1.3% last week.

A Look at the Market

Stocks and bonds are now down year-to-date as measured by the S&P 500 or the Aggregate Bond Index. Sector moves continue to be very volatile, with Energy stocks leading the way. State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF, up 2.9% last week, has returned 32.7%. I wrote about XLE two weeks ago when it was up 26.5% year-to-date, and I cautioned that it could keep going up though is seemingly overdone.

Looking at the other 10 sectors, the big ones by market cap are down, while a few small ones are up. None are close to XLE!

State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) is leading the way lower. I recently upgraded XLF from Sell to Hold. I like smaller Financials due to potential M&A, but I am not yet excited by the very largest banks.

Today, I want to address precious metals, which have been extremely volatile. State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLB) holds some of these stocks, though it is diversified. XLB, down 4.5% last week, is still up year-to-date. The S&P 500 sector holds 26 stocks, only some of which are related to precious metals. Less than 20% of XLB is related to metals and mining. The website from State Street has a lot of information, including the top 10 as of 3/19:

My 84-ETF Watchlist has several precious metals ETFs, including Gold Trust ETF (GLD) and Gold Trust ETF (IAU), Silver Trust ETF (SLV) and VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX). I have been quite negative on precious metals recently, though I removed all the bets in my accounts against it yesterday. Here is how these four ETFs have performed in 2026:

I have been most negative on the miners, and GDX is now down 6.6% year-to-date. In early February, I discussed how GDX had peaked, and it is down 18.7% since then though it posted an all-time high in early March. Silver, now down, was up X% as of late January, and the others have dropped too but are still up in 2026.

While I remain negative on the outlook for the precious metals, I have no exposure currently. I want to explain why. While precious metals are up a lot over the past few years, they are down too sharply. Just looking at GLD, which peaked in January at $509.70 and is now down 18.9%, it is up 144% since the end of 2022. Here is the chart over the past year:

Gold (and silver and the miners) went up a ton, but the decline has left some gaps in trading. Note how high the volumes were earlier this year. Last week, volume ticked up, but it is much lower than it was when it peaked and collapsed. The open gaps could get filled. I have my eye on the $400 area, as there is a gap open below that round number dating to January 2nd at $401.62. Could it keep falling? Yes. Might it bounce first? Indeed!

I have followed Bitcoin for a while, and an ETF related to it has come into the model portfolio and exited profitably, but it is in again. I discussed this in an article in February, literally weeks ago, suggesting that it might make sense to take a bite. Bitcoin has the same exposure that precious metals has to being non-dollar, but it has crashed. For those looking for alternatives to the US dollar, it makes more sense to me than precious metals. Yes, gold (and silver and the miners) could bounce, but the trend is now down. Bitcoin might keep bouncing for a while, especially if the precious metals stabilize. Here is the big Bitcoin ETF compared to GLD and SLV this past month:

Gold is the perennial inflation hedge, and inflation risk seems to be escalating. I like TIPS!

ETF Model Portfolio Update

This ETF, which is measured against 60% SPY and 40% AGG, is up considerably relative to its benchmark. This week, I did two trades, all of which are published on my Seeking Alpha blog.

Going into the week, my equity exposure totaled 53.5%, spread out across five ETFs. Here is what I did this week:

• Monday - I took profits on iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF(IBIT) and added to PIMCO 15+ Year US TIPS Index ETF (LTPZ) and ProShares Russell 2000 Dividend Growers ETF (SMDV).

• Tuesday - I reduced LTPZ and added to Vanguard Short-Term Treasury Index (VGSH).

• Wednesday - I reduced Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index Fund ETF (VBR) and added to IBIT and reduced Vanguard Extended Market ETF (VXF) to add to SMDV.

• Thursday - I extended from Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities Index ETF (VTIP) to LTPZ.

• Friday - I added back a very beaten-up fund, the State Street SPDR S&P Software & Services ETF (XSW) and also extended from VTIP to LTPZ again.

Here is the current model portfolio, which now has 55.2% equity exposure in 6 ETFs and fixed income exposure in 3 ETFs that totals 37.7%. There is also 6.8% invested in an a 10th ETF that is considered "Other":

How Can I Help You?

I enjoy analyzing ETFs and stocks, and I like sharing my thinking in writing. I am working on starting a subscription service at Seeking Alpha. What things would you as an investor like to see offered?

If you are an investment professional, I would like to work with you as well. I can help educate financial consultants about the ETFs, and I can work with management at investment firms to help create model portfolios or potential ETF investments. Please let me know if your firm would be interested in this.

My ETF articles at Seeking Alpha, written under the alias The Intelligent ETF Investor, share a lot of my ideas.