Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of May 5 And 12

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast	Prior
Week of May 5		Observation
May 5

PMI Services Index	51.4	51.4

ISM Services - April	50.8	50.8
ISM Prices
ISM Business Activity

May 6
International Trade in Goods - March	-$139.7B	122.7

May 7
FOMC	4.375%	4.375
Consumer Credit - March	$11.0B	-0.8

May 8
Productivity - Q1 (p)	-0.5%	1.5
Unit Labor Costs	5.5	2.2

Initial Unemployment Claims	235K	241
Wholesale Inventories - March	0.2%	0.5

Week of May 12
May 12
Treasury Budget - April	-$260.0B	-160.5

May 13
NFIB Small Business Optumism - April	95.0	97.4

Consumer Price Index - April	0.2%	-0.1
Core CPI	0.3	0.1
Energy	2.5	2.4



May 15
Retail Sales - April	1.4%	1.4
Retail Sales, ex Autos	0.5	0.5
Retail Sales,ex autos and gas	0.7	0.8

Producer Price Index - April	0.3%	-0.4
PPI less food, energy and trade services	0.3	-0.1
Energy

Philadelphia Fed Survey	-10.0	-26.4
NY Fed Manufacturing Index	-8.0	-8.1
Initial Unemployment Claims

Industrial Production - April	-0.1	-0.3
Capacity Utilization	-0.2	0.3
Manufacturing	77.2	77.8

Business Inventories - March	0.1%	0.2
NAHB Index - May	40	40

May 16
Housing Starts - April	1.350M	1.324
Building Permits	1.470	1.482

Export Prices - April	-0.3%	0.0
Import Prices	-0.3	-0.1
Import Prices, Ex-Petroleum	0.1	0.0

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - May (p)	52.2	52.2
Year Ahead Inflation	65.5	6.5

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