Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of March 11 And March 18

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of March 11

March 11

Business Inventories - December

0.8%

-0.1

0.6

Retail Sales - January

0.3%

-1.2

0

Retail Sales, ex Autos

0.4

-1.8

0.2

Retail Sales, ex-Autos, Gas

0.7

-1.4

0.5

March 12

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - February

102.5

101.2

102.8

Consumer Price Index - February

0.1%

0.0

0.2

CPI Core

0.2

0.2

0.2

March 13

Durable Goods Orders - January

-0.8%

1.2

-0.8

Producer Price Index - February

0.2%

-0.1

0.2

PPI less food, energy and trade services

0.2

0.2

0.2

Energy

Construction Spending - January

0.6%

-0.6

0.3

March 14

Initial Unemployment Claims

222K

223

225

New Home Sales - January

610K

621

620

Export Prices - February

0.0%

-0.6

0.2

Import Prices

0.3

-0.5

0.3

March 15

NY Fed Manufacturing Index

9.0

8.8

10.0

Industrial Production - February

1.1%

-0.6

0.4

Capacity Utilization

79.0

78.2

78.5

Manufacturing Output

0.4

-0.9

0.4

JOLTS - January

7.335M

7.335

7.155

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - March (p)

94.0

93.8

94.8

Week of March 18

March 18

NAHB Index - March

62

62

March 19

Factory Orders - January

-0.2%

0.1

Durable Goods Orders

-0.8

1.2

Nondurable Goods Orders

0.4

-1.0

March 20

FMOC

2.375%

2.375

March 21

Philadelphia Fed Survey

7.6

-4.1

Current Account - Q4

-136.0

-124.8

Leading Indicators - February

0.1%

-0.1

March 22

Existing Home Sales - February

5.100M

4.940

Wholesale Inventories - January

Treasury Budget - February

-$225.0B

8.7