My team of trusty forecasting assistants has decamped to West Virginia with a case of good bourbon and is offline until Labor Day.
Angela and I leave for our annual trip to Europe tomorrow and return the week after Labor Day
Below are my forecasts through Labor Day.
Forecast | Prior Observation | |
Week of August 17 | ||
August 17 | ||
NY Fed Manufacturing Index | 10 | 15.6 |
NAHB Index | 33 | 34 |
August 18 | ||
Housing Starts - July | 1.350M | 1.427 |
Building Permits | 1.360 | 1.367 |
Export Prices - July | 0.0% | -0.6 |
Import Prices | 0.0 | 0.3 |
Industrial Production - July | 0.5% | 0.1 |
Manufacturing | 0.6 | 0.0 |
Capacity Utilization | 76.5 | 76.1 |
Pending Home Sales Index - July | 73.2 | 72.5 |
August 20 | ||
Initial Unemployment Claims | ||
Philadelphia Fed Survey | 25 | 41.4 |
Leading Economic Indicators | -0.1% | -0.2 |
August 21 | ||
PMI Manufacturing Flash Index | 53.5 | 53.9 |
PMI Services Flash | 53.4 | 54.6 |
Week of August 24 | ||
August 24 | ||
Chicago Fed National Activity Index - July | 0.05 | -0.02 |
August 25 | ||
S&P Case/Shiller Index - June | ||
Twenty City M/M | 0.2% | 0.9 |
Twenty City M/M - SA | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Twenty City Y/Y | 1.7 | 1.6 |
FHFA Home Price Index - June | 0.2% | 0.3 |
Consumer Confidence - August | 90.0 | 90.8 |
New Home Sales - July | 615K | 628 |
August 26 | ||
Durable Goods Sales - July | 0.3% | 0.3 |
GDP - Q2 (p) | 1.5% | 1.5 |
GDP Price Deflator | 5.7 | 5.7 |
PCE | 3.2 | 3.2 |
PCE Deflator | 5.1 | 5.1 |
PCE Core Deflator | 3.4 | 3.4 |
Personal Income - July | 0.2% | 0.2 |
Personal Spending | 0.4 | 0.3 |
PCE Price Index | 0.1 | -0.1 |
Core PCE Price Index | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Real Personal Spending | 0.1 | 0.4 |
Wholesale Inventories - July (a) | 0.2% | 0.2 |
August 27 | ||
Initial Unemployment Claims | 200K | |
International Trade in Goods - July | -$100.5B | -101.5 |
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index | 9 | 9 |
Wholesale Inventories - July (a) | 0.2% | 0.2 |
August 28 | ||
Chicago PMI | 56.0 | 57.6 |
Week of August 31 | ||
August 31 | ||
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | 1.0 | 1.3 |
September 1 | ||
ISM (Mfg) - August | 55.6 | 55.6 |
Construction Spending - July | -0.1% | -0.1 |
JOLTS - July | 7.300M | 7.359 |
September 2 | ||
Auto Sales* - August | 16.2M | 16.326 |
Car Sales | 2.7 | 2.704 |
Truck Sales | 13.5 | 13.621 |
ADP Employment Report - August | 30K | 44 |
Factory Orders - July | 0.0% | -0.3 |
Durable Goods Orders | 0.3 | 0.5 |
Nondurable Goods Orders | -0.4 | -1.2 |
September 3 | ||
International Trade - July | -$74.5B | -73.3 |
Initial Unemployment Claims | 200K | |
Productivity - Q2 (r) | 1.4% | 1.4 |
Unit Labor Costs | 1.3 | 1.3 |
ISM Services - August | 53.5 | 54.1 |
September 4 | ||
Nonfarm Payrolls - August | 30K | -23 |
Private | 40 | 30 |
Manufacturing | 5 | 5 |
Unemployment | 4.2% | 4.1 |
Average Workweek | 34.3HR | 34.3 |
Average Hourly Earnings | 0.2% | 0.1 |
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