Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of July 31 And Aug. 7

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Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
	Forecast	Prior Observation	Consensus
Week of July 31
July 31
Chicago PMI - July	42.5	41.5	43.0
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index	-22.5	-23.2

August 1
PMI Manufacturing Index - July	49.0	49.0
ISM (Mfg) - July	46.4	46.0	46.8

Construction Spending - June	0.6%	0.9	0.6
JOLTS - June	9.650M	10	9.620

Auto Sales* - July	15.9M	15.7
Car Sales	3.2	3.1
Truck Sales	12.7	12.6

August 2
ADP Employment Report - July	160K	497	188

August 3
Productivity - Q2 (p)	2.3%	-2.1	2.0
Unit Labor Costs	1.7	4.2	2.6

Initial Unemployment Claims	230K	221	227

PMI Services Index	52.4	52.4
ISM Services - July	53.0	53.9	53.0

Factory Orders - June	2.4%	0.3	2.3
Durable Goods Orders	4.7	1.8
Nondurable Goods Orders	0.0	-1.2

August 4
Nonfarm Payrolls - July	180K	209	200
Private	160	149	175
Manufacturing	8	7	5
Unemployment	3.6%	4.2	3.6
Average Workweek	34.4HR	34.4	34.4
Average Hourly Earnings	0.4%	0.4	0.3

Week of August 7
August 7
Consumer Credit - June	$15.0B	7.3

August 8
NFIB Small Business Optimisim Index - July	91.0	91.0
International Trade - June	-$64.9B	-69.0
Wholesale Inventories - June	-0.3%	-0.3

August 10

Consumer Price Index - July	0.2%	0.2
CPI Core	0.3	0.2

Treasury Budget - July	-$95.0B	-227.8

August 11
Producer Price Index - July	0.2%	0.1
PPI less food energy and trade services	0.3	0.1

Michigan Consumer Sentiment (p)	71.6	71.6

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