Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of July 17 And 24
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Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
| Forecast | Prior Observation | ||
| Week of July 17 | |||
| July 17 | |||
| NY Fed Manufacturing Index | 0.0% | 6.6 | |
| July 18 | |||
| Retail Sales - June | 0.4% | 0.3 | |
| Retail Sales, ex Autos | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gasoline | 0.2 | 0.4 | |
| Industrial Production - June | 0.0% | -0.2 | |
| Capacity Utilization | 79.4 | 79.6 | |
| Manufacturing | -0.1 | 0.1 | |
| Business Inventories - May | 0.2% | 0.2 | |
| NAHB Index - July | 55.0 | 55.0 | |
| July 19 | |||
| Housing Starts - June | 1.485M | 1.631 | |
| Building Permits | 1515 | 1.491 | |
| July 20 | |||
| Philadelphia Fed Survey | -10.4 | -13.7 | |
| Leading Indicators | -0.4% | -0.7 | |
| Existing Home Sales - June | 4.300K | 4.300 | |
| Week of July 24 | |||
| July 24 | |||
| Chicago Fed National Activity Index - June | -0.15 | -0.15 | |
| PMI Manufacturing Flash Index | 46.9 | 46.3 | |
| PMI Services Flash Index | 53.5 | 54.4 | |
| July 25 | |||
| S&P Case/Shiller Index - May | |||
| Twenty City M/M | 1.7% | 1.7 | |
| Twenty City M/M - SA | 1.3 | 0.9 | |
| Twenty City Y/Y | -1.8 | -1.7 | |
| FHFA Home Price Index - May | 0.5% | 0.7 | |
| Consumer Confidence - July | 108.0 | 109.7 | |
| Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | -8 | -7 | |
| July 26 | |||
| New Home Sales - June | 722K | 763 | |
| FMOC | 5.375 | 5.125 | |
| July 27 | |||
| GDP - Q2 (a) | 1.4% | 2.0 | |
| Durable Goods Orders - June | -1.0% | 1.7 | |
| International Trade in Goods - June | -91.5 | -91.1 | |
| Wholesale Inventories - June (a) | -0.1% | 0.0 | |
| Pending Home Sale Index - June | 77.6 | 76.5 | |
| July 28 | |||
| Employment Cost Index - Q2 | 1.3% | 1.2 | |
| Employment Cost Index - Y/Y | 5.0 | 4.8 | |
| Personal Income - June | 0.4% | 0.4 | |
| Personal Spending | 0.3 | 0.1 |
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Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...
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