Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of July 3 And 10
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| Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data | |||
| Forecast | Prior Observation | Consensus | |
| Week of July 3 | |||
| July 3 | |||
| PMI Manufacturing Index - June | 46.3 | 46.3 | |
| ISM (Mfg) - June | 47.4 | 46.9 | 44.0 |
| Construction Spending - May | 0.4% | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| Auto Sales - June | 15.4M | 15.0 | |
| Car Sales | 3.2 | 3.1 | |
| Truck Sales | 12.2 | 11.9 | |
| July 5 | |||
| Factory Orders - May | 1.0% | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Durable Goods Orders | 1.7 | 1.1 | |
| Nondurable Goods Orders | 0.2 | -0.1 | |
| July 6 | |||
| ADP Employment Report - June | 253K | 278 | 230 |
| International Trade - May | -$68.6B | -74.6 | -69.5 |
| Initial Unemployment Claims | 240K | 239 | 245 |
| PMI Services Index | 54.1 | 54.1 | |
| ISM Services - June | 50.8 | 50.3 | 51.0 |
| JOLTS - May | 10.000M | 10.103 | 9.900 |
| July 7 | |||
| Nonfarm Payrolls - June | 245K | 339 | 225 |
| Private | 225 | 283 | 205 |
| Manufacturing | 5 | -2 | 0 |
| Unemployment | 3.7% | 3.7 | 3.7 |
| Average Workweek | 34.3HR | 34.3 | 34.3 |
| Average Hourly Earnings | 0.4% | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Week of July 10 | |||
| July 10 | |||
| Wholesale Inventories - May | -0.1% | -0.1 | |
| Consumer Credit - May | $20.0B | 23.0 | |
| July 11 | |||
| NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - July | 89.0 | 89.4 | |
| July 12 | |||
| Consumer Price Index - June | 0.4% | 0.1 | |
| Core CPI | 0.4 | 0.4 | |
| July 13 | |||
| Producer Producer Index - June | 0.3% | -0.3 | |
| PPI less food energy and trade services | 0.3 | 0.0 | |
| Treasury Budget - June | -$10.0B | -240.3 | |
| July 14 | |||
| Export Prices - June | 0.3% | -1.9 | |
| Import Prices | 0.3 | -0.6 | |
| Import Prices, ex-Energy | 0.2 | -0.2 | |
| Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (p) | 65.5 | 64.4 | |
Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...
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