Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of July 24 And 31
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| Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. | |||
| Forecast | Prior Observation | Consensus | |
| Week of July 24 | |||
| July 24 | |||
| Chicago Fed National Activity Index - June | -0.05 | -0.15 | |
| PMI Manufacturing Flash Index | 46.9 | 46.3 | 46.4 |
| PMI Services Flash Index | 53.5 | 54.4 | 54 |
| July 25 | |||
| S&P Case/Shiller Index - May | |||
| Twenty City M/M | 1.7% | 1.7 | |
| Twenty City M/M - SA | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| Twenty City Y/Y | -1.8 | -1.7 | -3.3 |
| FHFA Home Price Index - May | 0.5% | 0.7 | |
| Consumer Confidence - July | 109.0 | 109.7 | 111.5 |
| Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | -8 | -7 | |
| July 26 | |||
| New Home Sales - June | 722K | 763 | 727 |
| FMOC | 5.375% | 5.125 | |
| July 27 | |||
| GDP - Q2 (a) | 1.4% | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| Durable Goods Orders - June | -1.0% | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| International Trade in Goods - June | -91.5 | -91.1 | |
| Wholesale Inventories - June (a) | -0.1% | 0.0 | |
| Initial Unemployment Claims | 235K | 228 | 235 |
| Pending Home Sale Index - June | 77.6 | 76.5 | |
| July 28 | |||
| Employment Cost Index - Q2 | 1.3% | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Employment Cost Index - Y/Y | 5.0 | 4.8 | |
| Personal Income - June | 0.4% | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| Personal Spending | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.4 |
| PCE Price Index | 0.2 | 0.1 | |
| Core PCE Price Index | 0.2 | 0.3 | |
| Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (r) | 72.6 | 72.6 | 72.6 |
| Week of July 31 | |||
| July 31 | |||
| Chicago PMI - July | 42.5 | 41.5 | |
| Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | -22.5 | -23.2 | |
| August 1 | |||
| ISM (Mfg) - July | 46.4 | 46.0 | |
| ISM Prices | |||
| Construction Spending - June | 0.6% | 0.9 | |
| JOLTS - June | 9.650M | 10 | |
| Auto Sales* - July | 15.9M | 15.7 | |
| Car Sales | 3.2 | 3.1 | |
| Truck Sales | 12.7 | 12.6 | |
| August 2 | |||
| ADP Employment Report - July | 160K | 497 | |
| August 3 | |||
| Productivity - Q2 (p) | 1.3% | -2.1 | |
| Unit Labor Costs | 2.7 | 4.2 | |
| Factory Orders - June | -0.5% | 0.3 | |
| Durable Goods Orders | -1.0 | 1.8 | |
| Nondurable Goods Orders | 0.0 | -1.2 | |
| August 4 | |||
| Nonfarm Payrolls - July | 180K | 209 | |
| Private | 160 | 149 | |
| Manufacturing | 8 | 7 | |
| Unemployment | 3.6% | 4.2 | |
| Average Workweek | 34.4HR | 34.4 | |
| Average Hourly Earnings | 0.4% | 0.4 |
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Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...
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