Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of Feb. 9 And 16

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast	Prior Observation
Week of February 9
February 10
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - January	99.5	99.5

Employment Cost Index - Q4	0.8%	0.8
Employment Cost Index - Y/Y	3.5	3.5

Retail Sales - December	0.5%	0.6
Retail Sales, ex autos	0.4	0.5
Retail Sales, ex autos and gasoline	0.3	0.6

Business Inventories - November	0.2%	0.3

February 11
Nonfarm Payrolls - January	55K	50
Private	42	37
Manufacturing	-5	-8
Unemployment	4.4%	4.4
Average Workweek	34.2HR	34.2
Average Hourly Earnings	0.2%	0.3

Treasury Budget - January	$188.0B	145.0

February 12
Consumer Price Index - January	0.1%	0.3
Core CPI	0.2	0.2

Existing Home Sales - January	4.250M	4.350

Week of February 16
February 17
NY Fed Manufacturing Index	4.0	7.7

NAHB Index - February	39	37

February 18
Housing Starts - November	1.350M	1.246
Building Permits	1.425	1.412

Industrial Production - January	0.3%	0.4
Manufacturing Output	0.2	0.2
Capacity Utilization	76.4	76.3

February 19
International Trade - December	-$55.5B	-56.8

Philadelphia Fed Survey	10.0	12.6
Pending Home Sales - January	76.0	71.8

Wholesale Inventories - November (a)	0.2%	0.2

February 20
New Home Sales - November	725K	737
New Home Sales - December	730

GDP - Q4 (a)	3.0	4.4

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