Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of April 1 And 8

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of April 1

April 1

PMI Manufacturing Index - March

52.5

52.5

52.5

ISM (Mfg) - March

54.5

54.2

54.0

Business Inventories - January

0.5%

0.6

0.3

Construction Spending - February

0.0%

1.3

-0.1

Retail Sales - February

0.4%

0.2

0.3

Retail Sales, ex Autos

0.6

0.9

0.4

Retail Sales, ex-Autos, Gas

0.6

1.2

0.4

April 2

Durable Good Orders - February

-0.8%

0.2

-1.9

Auto Sales - March

16.8M

16.5

16.8

Car Sales

5.0

4.8

Truck Sales

11.8

11.7

April 3

ADP Employment Report - March

165K

183

160

PMI Services Index - March

54.8

54.8

54.8

ISM Services - March

58.2

59.7

58.0

April 4

Initial Unemployment Claims

222K

211

216

April 5

Nonfarm Payrolls - March

175K

20

169

Private

165

25

165

Manufacturing

8

4

9

Unemployment

3.9%

3.8

3.8

Average Workweek

34.4HR

34.4

34.5

Average Hourly Earnings

0.3%

0.4

0.2

Consumer Credit - February

$17.0B

17.0

17.0

Week of April 8

April 8

Factory Orders - February

-0.3%

0.1

-0.4

April 9

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - March

101.2

101.7

JOLTS - February

7.581M

7.581

April 10

Consumer Price Index - March

0.3%

0.2

0.3

Core CPI

0.2

0.1

0.2

Treasury Budget - March

-$174.0B

-234.0

April 11

Initial Unemployment Claims

Producer Price Index - March

0.3%

0.1

0.3

PPI less food, energy and trade services

0.2

0.1

April 12

Export Prices - March

0.1%

0.6

0.3

Import Prices

0.3

0.6

0.5

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - April (p)

98.0

98.4