Economic Data Forecast For The Week Of Feb. 16

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
	Forecast	Prior Observation
Week of February 16
February 16
New York Fed Manufacturing Index	10.0	7.7

February 17
Retail Sales - January	0.3%	0.0
Retail Sales, ex Autos	0.3	0.0
Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gas	0.3	0.0

Industrial Production - January	0.3%	0.4
Manufacturing Output	0.2	0.2
Capacity Utilization	76.4	76.3

Business Inventories - December	0.2%	0.1

NAHB Index - February	39	37

February 18
Housing Starts - November	1.350M	1.246
Building Permits	1.425	1.411

Housing Starts - December	1.350M
Building Permits	1.425

Durable Goods Orders - December	-2.5%	5.3

February 19
Initial Unemployment Claims	225K	227
International Trade - December	-$55.5B	-56.8
Wholesale Inventories (a)

Philadelphia Fed Survey	10.0	12.6
Leading Indicators - December ?	-0.2%	-0.3
Pending Home Sales - January	76.0	71.8

Wholesale Inventories - November (a)	0.2%	0.2

International Trade in Good -December (a)	-$77.7B	-86.0

February 20
PMI Manufacturing Flash Index		52.4
PMI Services Flash Index		53.0

New Home Sales - November	730K	737
New Home Sales - December	730



GDP - Q4 (a)	2.5%	4.4
GDP Implicit Price Deflator

Personal Income - December	0.3%	0.3
Personal Spending	0.5%	0.5

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - February (r)	57.3	57.3

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