Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of July 3 And July 10

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of July 3

July 3

PMI Manufacturing Index - June

52.1

52.1(p)

52.2

ISM (Mfg) - June

54.9%

54.9(p)

55.1

ISM Prices

60.0

60.5

Construction Spending - May

0.4%

-1.4

0.5

Auto Sales* - June

16.6M

16.7

16.6

*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence

Factory Orders - May

-0.5%

-0.2

-0.6

Durable Goods Orders

-1.1

-1.1(p)

Nondurable Goods Orders

0.2

0.4

July 6

Initial Unemployment Claims

240K

244K

244

ADP Employment Report - July

175K

253

178

International Trade - May

-$47.0B

-47.6

-46.2

PMI Services Index

53.0

53.0(p)

53.0

ISM Services - June

56.4

56.9

Nonfarm Payrolls - June

180K

138

170

Private

175

147

164

Manufacturing

6

-1

Unemployment

4.3%

4.3

4.3

Average Workweek

34.4HR

34.4

34.4

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.2

0.3

Week of July 10

July 10

Consumer Credit - May

$12.0B

8.2

July 11

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - June

104.5

104.5

JOLTS - May

5.95M

6.044

Wholesale Inventories - May

0.3%

0.3 (p)

July 13

Producer Producer Index - June

0.1%

0.0

Core PPI (less food, energy and trade services

0.2

-0.1

Treasury Budget - June

-$45.0B

-88.4

July 14

Consumer Price Index - June

0.1%

-0.1

Core CPI

0.2

0.1

Retail Sales - June

0.1%

-0.3

Retail Sales, ex Autos

0.0

-0.3

Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gasoline

0.1

0.0

Industrial Production - June

0.2%

0.0

Capacity Utilization

76.7

76.6

Manufacturing

-0.2

-0.4

Business Inventories - May

0.2%

-0.2

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (p)

97.1

95.1