December 2019 Real Personal Income And Spending

Real personal income and spending are both coincident indicators. They don’t tell us where the economy is going, but they do give us a snapshot of how ordinary Americans are doing.

In December, real income declined by less than -0.1%. Real spending rose by less than +0.1%:

(Click on image to enlarge)

Real personal spending excluding government transfer payments is one of the four indicators used by the NBER to determine if the economy is in a recession or not. In December this was flat. Overall in 2019, there was a slow uptrend:

(Click on image to enlarge)

This is one indication that as of one month ago the economy was not in a recession.