Bullish Trend Intact For SPY And GDX

SPX Monitoring purposes; Long SPX on 10/31/25 at 6840.20.

Our gain 1/1/24 to 12/31/24 = 29.28%; SPX gain 23.67%

Our Gain 1/1/23 to 12/31/23 SPX= 28.12%; SPX gain 23.38%

Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX at 75.76; 9/29/25

Above is the weekly SPY. Last week low tested the weekly low of February 2 on much lighter volume suggesting support. This week volume estimate will come in around 330 million shares and will be higher than last week volume of 312 million shares suggests the rally will continue to the next higher high of the week of February 9 which comes in at 696 range. The February 9 week volume came in at 428 million shares and volume will be needed near that level to get through that high. Short term we expect the rally will continue to the 696 SPY range which is the weekly February 9 high and the next move will be depending on what the weekly volume does on a test of the February 9 high.

We are keeping an eye on the larger picture and the larger picture remains bullish. No change on the 100 and 50 day average of the TRIN suggesting the intermediate trend remains bullish; previous commentary still applies, “Intermediate term the market looks OK. The bottom window is the 100 day TRIN and next higher window is the 50 day TRIN. Its bearish sign when both the 50 day and 100 day TRIN falls below 1.00. We shaded in pink the times when these scenarios happen. The 100 day sets at 1.02 and the 50 day TRIN sets at 1.06 and suggests a large decline here is unlikely. There can be minor pullbacks of 5% or less but a 10% or greater decline is unlikely at this time.”

Momentum rules all indicators. The bottom window is the GDX/GLD ratio which touched a new high today and a bullish sign for GDX. Next higher window is the daily cumulative advance/decline (a momentum indicator for the advance/decline for GDX) which is hitting new highs showing market is getting stronger. Next higher window is the daily cumulative up down volume (a momentum indicator for the up down volume for GDX) which is also hitting new highs. Though there can be a consolidation here as volume studies are not ideal but the longer term picture remains bullish. We are staying with the longer term picture which is bullish. Long GDX on 9/29/25 at 75.76.