Robert P. Balan | TalkMarkets | Page 1
Managing Owner and CIO, Predictive Analytic Models (PAM)
Robert P. Balan runs Predictive Analytic Models, #1-rated trading unit at Seeking Alpha. PAM trades Swiss HF funds using Federal Reserve, US Treasury, and term (money) market liquidity data flows as basis for trading decisions. He is domiciled in Zurich, Switzerland. Robert Balan 5 decades of ...more

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Impressive Decline In Yields, But Allow For Yield Recovery From Slightly Lower Levels Still; NQ And ES Not Responding Higher Yet, But Will Likely Do It Later In The Day
It looks like we are having a deeper correction, one of joshweir's "guy with the long mullet" types. We should expect a rebound in yield starting sometime within the next 24 hours. We can clearly see that tendency for a yield rebound as depicted by our quick-and-lazy (num decomp) of the TGA model.
The 10Yr Yield Has Bottomed; YM And RTY Should Now Lead Equity Futures Higher
The 10Yr yield has bottomed. The next move higher in yields colors the way the indexes would move from here. If so, we look for 10Yr yield rally back to just below 1.40 handles again.. Yield rise gives YM and RTY a kick-in-the-pants, and this duo should lead the rest of the equity futures higher.
PAM Offloads Equity Longs As The Lagged Effect Of Liquidity Outflows Set-In; 10Yr Yield Also Due To Resume Declines, Which Should Tip Equities Over, Downside
Our short-term outlook of 10Yr yield ratcheting up to 1.33 taking place. Watch the behavior of the Yield at 1.33--it determines behavior of equity index futures, short term. We've bet long equities on assumption that the Yield will ratchet higher, thru 1.33-- equities should follow through higher.
(July 2, 2021): The SKEW Index Does Something Slightly Off-Beat; We Should Pay Attention To It
I explained the mechanics of how PAM uses the first derivative of the SKEW Index as a leading sentiment indicator, when used in conjunction with liquidity flows. Here is the June 16 post which dissected the procedure.
July 1, 2021: Looking For A Short-Term Top, Before Markets Blast-Off Again: 10Yr Yield Looking For A Near- Term Top
The Yield is rising, and coincided with the rise in ALL the index futures -- are we now back to POSITIVE covariance? This is a very interesting, new development. Are we now rotating back into the historical, positive covariance between yields and equities?
(June 22, 2021): The Stock Market Apocalypse Has Been Postponed Until Mid-July
This postpones the Apocalypse that linear (ruler and pen) technical analysts have been proudly broadcasting at TWTR, until yesterday, that is -- when markets regained all that have been lost the previous day (plus a little more). THAT was not part of their narrative of a straight Highway To Hell
(June 11, 2021, Post-Europe Open): Scalping Long Equities First Thing In Europe Trade; We're Now On Lookout For A Top In Equities
How long can Equities and VIX defy the downward lead of the 10Yr Yield? Not for very long IMO. We're now on watch for typical peak behavior in equities, so we make LABD the canary in the coal mine. If/when LABD reacts violently to the downside
Finally, Redemption; We Will Reset Exited Longs Monday, Looking For Another 2 To 3 More Up-Days
That was a hard-fought $1,872,000 loot for the first trades days of the June month. We alternated between anxiety and boredom in the past 3 days, but we got redemption today.
Getting Set For A Rally In Equities And In Yields; DXY May Rise As Well, Probably Even Gold
Fed Balance sheet liquidity trading models still showing likely decline in Volatility Index (VIX), over the next week or so. That also holds true for the Fed Balance sheet liquidity trading models applied to the S&P 500 Index -- showing likely rally in equity futures, over the next week or so.
(June 1, 2021): PAM Reloads Long Equity Positions And Hedges; 10yr Yield Has Likely Bottomed For A While
SPX rallying higher, per the liquidity models' call, going into the period of June 2 to 7 (optimal, interpolated top thereafter is June 4). No change in outlook, so far, and in fact our conviction strengthened by the precise turns in SPX, as predicted by the trading models.
PAM's Friday Pre-NY Open Briefing, A Detailed And Comprehensive Analysis, Still Applies
Therefore, on balance, we expect equity futures to drift lower today, and that weakness may possibly extend until tomorrow, June 1, as we have depicted in all the schematics of the equity futures forecast progression.
The Correlations Between The Fed's Balance Sheet And S&P 500 Comp Index And VIX Becomes Even Tighter
Updating the charts that had my eyes popping: Changes in the Fed balance sheet Granger-causes VIX changes (0.93, corr coef., from 0.926), and explains 86.6% of (R^2), from 86.3%, from March 16, 2020, to-date
More Downside In Yields; So You Can Keep The Long Equity Trades Over Memorial Weekend, If You Wish
There should be more downside in yields. But issues are posed by a long Memorial weekend. Low in yields may be seen next week. The green circle is probably lowest we can expect today. I believe we should just take what will be offered and look at these trades again next week
10yr Yield Heads Heads Higher Over The Next Two Week; Equities May Still Surprise A Final Rally First Week Of June
Given the sharp uptake in yields over the past two days, it's time to update the model which has anticipated this move very precisely. Per this liquidity change model, yields are now headed higher over the next two weeks.
One Final Uptick In Equities; We May Be Selling By Monday-Tuesday Next Week
Beam's schemata on on the RTY I believe shows we are on a typical penultimate consolidation sequence, and that likely will be followed by a sharp uptick in equities, maybe the final one for this week.
Yields, DXY Move Higher, Gold Lower; Possibly A Final, Uptick For Equities
The 10yr yield may have already made a trough, but a subsequent test of its lows should allow one final uptick in equities.
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