Cullen Roche | TalkMarkets | Page 36
Founder at Orcam Financial Group, LLC
Mr. Roche is the founder of Orcam Financial Group, LLC, a low fee financial services firm based in San Diego, CA as well as the founder of the popular financial website Pragmatic Capitalism. Orcam Financial Group, LLC is a low fee financial services firm ...more

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Three Lessons From The Junk Bond Collapse
I think a lot of people own junk bonds purely for the income generation. They assume that junk bonds will provide a bond-like return with lower risk than something like stocks.
Assessing The Utility Of Wall Street’s Annual Forecasts
It’s that time of year when Wall Street makes its 2016 predictions. These annual predictions are largely useless. But it’s still helpful to put these predictions in perspective because it highlights a good deal of behavioral bias.
Revisiting The Destabilizing Force Of Misguided Market Intervention
We’ve become so dependent on the Fed for policy moves that I have to wonder if this dependence is actually serving public policy well. The evidence from the last 7 years does not bode well.
Three Things I Think, I Think
Here are some things I think, I am thinking about.
3 Charts I Think I’m Thinking About
Here's what I'm thinking about: 1. Prospects for the 60/40 portfolio; 2. Has the US Dollar Already Priced in the Rate Hikes? 3. Labor Force Participation Rate Conspiracies.
ETFs Don’t Kill Investors, Investors Kill Investors
ETFs are dangerous when misunderstood and misused. As Warren Buffett says, never invest in something you don’t understand.
How Much Can The Fed Raise Rates?
The risk/reward of a Fed tightening is very low at this point in the business cycle. If they tighten too much, too fast credit markets will likely slow even further than they already are. This will be explicit and dangerous tightening of policy.
Three Things I Think I Think – Bubble Spotting Edition
Dean Baker was among the few people who spotted the housing bubble fairly early.
Could The Fed Have Prevented The Financial Crisis?
Could the Fed have had the foresight to prevent the financial crisis and did it have the tools to achieve that? I think the Fed certainly could have and should have done more.
The Temporal Problem In Market Forecasting
You can’t talk about money and investing without talking about time. After all, the two are inherently interconnected.
Capitalism Needs More Capitalists Like Mark Zuckerberg
Yesterday Mark Zuckerberg announced his intention to give 99% of his Facebook stock to charity.
Conflicting Value Indicators Lead To Confusion Over Clarity
The concept of value is dynamic so the perception of value is much like the perception of beauty.
The Euro’s Broken Promises
Germany has basically gotten the better end of the bargain here. After all, were the peripheral countries not still involved the Euro would be much higher relative to all other currencies than it presently is.
There Is No Defense Of Closet Indexing
Closet indexing occurs when a high fee mutual fund or ETF promises to be able to “beat the market”, charges a fee premium relative to its benchmark and then largely mimics the performance of the benchmark.
The Great Normalization
The slowing growth of the global economy has many people confused about what’s going on.
Covariation Bias And The Bear Market "Genius"
Covariation bias is the tendency for people to overestimate the relationship between fearful stimuli and negative outcomes.
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