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Two Types Of Forecasting Errors
Article By:
Scott Sumner
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Wednesday, December 27, 2023 5:38 AM EDT
Tyler Cowen has an excellent Bloomberg article discussing the fact that economists did a poor job of forecasting the economy of 2023. But the article has one paragraph that contains a troubling ambiguity.
A Credit Hedge You Get Paid To Hold? Understanding Positive Return Expectations For Quality-Junk
Article By:
AllAboutAlpha
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Tuesday, December 26, 2023 6:16 AM EDT
A foundational premise of the Capital Asset Pricing Model is that all investor portfolios should hold the tangency portfolio levered up or levered down to suit their risk preferences.
Nemo Judex In Causa Sua
Article By:
Scott Sumner
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Tuesday, December 26, 2023 3:46 AM EDT
The Latin phrase Nemo judex in causa sua can be roughly translated as: No man can judge his own cause. This ancient maxim is a bedrock principle of English common law.
Free Cash Flow Vs. Adjusted EBITDA
Article By:
Andrew Sather
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Monday, December 25, 2023 7:48 AM EDT
A company that generates positive free cash flow each year is in a much better spot than one that consistently burns cash.
Slowing Down To Urban Speed Limits Impacts The Climate
Article By:
Angry Bear
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Sunday, December 24, 2023 8:12 AM EDT
Yves Smith at Naked Capitalism posted this Yale Climate Connections commentary on vehicle speeds impacting urban climates. Where I live in AZ, speed limits, stop signs, and stop lights are just suggestions.
Long-Term, Organic Revenue Growth Is A Key To Investment Success
Article By:
GreenDotStocks
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Wednesday, December 20, 2023 10:33 AM EDT
Revenue growth is probably the easiest of the 4 check boxes to quantify. Anyone can pull up their broker's research pages, or Yahoo Finance, and look at the past 3 or 5 years of revenue.
How To Trade Moving Averages
Article By:
Ara Zohrabian
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Wednesday, December 13, 2023 3:01 AM EDT
Moving averages are technical indicators that track the average price of a security over a specified period of time. They are one of the most popular and widely used trading tools and can be applied to any financial instrument.
The Mixed Economy Model Still Disrupts Private Markets
Article By:
Mises Institute
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Sunday, December 10, 2023 3:36 AM EDT
Market processes rely on prices, which are not established by a government decree or by the randomness of the human mind but are instead determined by supply and demand.
A New Book Takes A Deep Dive At Solving The Portfolio Problem
Article By:
James Picerno
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Wednesday, November 29, 2023 7:50 AM EDT
Financial wisdom is said to be cyclical rather than cumulative, but that’s unfair. However, in the dominion of portfolio management and design, academics and money managers have made great strides in decoding cryptic market signals.
Is Now A Good Time To Buy Bonds?
Article By:
Alpha Architect
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Wednesday, November 29, 2023 5:12 AM EDT
As pundits wrestle over the cause, implications, and sustainability of the recent massive moves in interest rates, I’ll instead delve into the two terms most often blamed for these shifts in rates: R-star and the Term Structure Premium.
Why Gasoline Prices Fall In The Fall
Article By:
Robert Rapier
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Monday, November 27, 2023 7:23 AM EDT
Gasoline prices fall almost every year between August and November. As someone whose job it once was to blend gasoline for ConocoPhillipsCOP, allow me to explain the reasons.
In this article: UGA
Natural Gas Liquids – The Forgotten Cousins
Article By:
Simon Lack
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Sunday, November 26, 2023 9:46 AM EDT
Media coverage of reliable energy tends to focus on oil and gas. Oil comes in hundreds of different grades of complex hydrocarbon molecules. Natural gas, methane, is the simplest hydrocarbon of them all with a molecular formula of CH4.
In this article: UNG
Heirloom Crops And Global Warming
Article By:
Angry Bear
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Sunday, November 19, 2023 9:28 AM EDT
The biggest near-term threat from global warming is loss of fresh water and arable land for crops. It turns out that nature has confronted the challenges of increased temperature, increased salinity, disease resistance and violent weather.
In this article: CORN
Guest Post: Climate Risks To Financial Performance Are Hugely Under-Estimated
Article By:
ESG Today
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Tuesday, November 14, 2023 8:08 AM EDT
Climate change and El Nino-driven drought slowing traffic in the Panama Canal hit headlines last week. Where the news will likely never appear, however, is in firms’ own reporting, even for those that experience significant climate-related loss.
Was 60/40 A Big Head Fake?
Article By:
AllAboutAlpha
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Monday, November 13, 2023 3:42 AM EDT
During the mid-t-late 2010s, the S&P 500 was compounding at 10-20% per annum. Bonds generate steady but modest returns as rates went to zero.