A very well written and detail rich article, thanks. The weak productivity growth does go hand in hand with the weak trade growth. This has been a developing trend but whether or not this trend will end anytime soon is another matter. Judging from the current political environment, I'm leaning towards no.
Thanks for this piece. I do believe SIX is very undervalued at this point in time. On SEAS, however, I'm not all that confident on SEAS management team successfully executing a turnaround plan,
An excellent piece that successfully captures all the issues currently plaguing CAH. My biggest concern with CAH is the uncertainty from the current political environment. The current politics will likely impact the healthcare sector in a significant manner but it is difficult to judge exactly which areas will be affected as no clear deals have surfaced to the public just yet.
"The SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) added 11.84 metric tons of gold on April 19. That’s the most since Sept. 6, 2016, and it brought the GLD’s holding to 860.76 metric tons."
I don't know how much I'd trust this data as there are no real options to verify any of this.
"The readiest proxy for gold investment demand is the holdings of that leading American GLD gold ETF. Unlike global gold supply-and-demand statistics which are only compiled and published quarterly, this dominant gold ETF releases its holdings daily. So they are the highest-resolution read available of what is going on in gold investment in real-time."
This is very misleading since GLD's movements are very insignificant compared to the overall gold market. The gold exchanges absolutely dwarf GLD's movements. Moreover, for quite some time, I have been hearing about how it is appropriate to follow the draw-downs and builds in the GLD ETF as a directional cue for gold price. But, the "logic" of this perspective always escaped me. Should we not expect that, if people are selling the GLD, draw-downs would be seen, and if people are buying the GLD, builds would be seen? Would that not make this "indicator" a lagging one, at best, and clearly not a leading indicator? Even in your own chart, you can see periods where the gold price leads GLD's holdings rather than the opposite.
In January, there was a 7.5% rise in the price of the GLD, which means people have been buying. Yet, since gold bottomed, GLD's holdings have fallen another 4.4%. Not only is it not a leading indicator, you can't even say it is a lagging indicator either. There are many other examples outside of this January example as well. This indicator has continually shown itself to be completely useless and irrelevant.
The daily holdings also don't mean much when there are absolutely no ways to verify any of it. Paper gold GLD claims to be fully backed by physical gold bullion but yet it refuses to give retail investors the right to redeem for any of these ‘claimed’ gold bullion. This fact alone would mean GLD shares are nothing more than paper at the end of the day. Furthermore, GLD’s prospectus is chalk full of weasel clauses and legal loopholes that allows the fund to get away without the full physical gold backing. One good example of this is the clause that states GLD has no right to audit subcustodial gold holdings. To this day, I have not heard of a single good reason for the existence of this audit loophole. I also hope people do not forget about the highly publicized visit by CNBC's Bob Pisani to GLD's gold vault. This visit was organized by GLD's management to prove the existence of GLD's gold but the gold bar held up by Mr. Pisani had the serial number ZJ6752 which did not appear on the most recent bar list at that time. It was later discovered that this "GLD" bar was actually owned by ETF Securities.
Thank you Gail for this thought provoking piece. I'd like that while some debt is good from an economic standpoint, we also have to keep an eye on loan defaults. Recently there has been a spike up in this area which is a concerning signal for the overall economic health.
I often see you making claims on GLD's holdings but I still have not seen any verifiable evidence to support any of these claims. How reliable are GLD's holding reports? GLD does not give retail investors the right to redeem for any of its mystery physical gold holdings. This fact alone ensures the GLD shares to be nothing more than paper at the end of the day. GLD also has a glaring audit loophole in their prospectus that states they have no right to audit subcustodial gold holdings. To this day, I have not heard of a single good reason for the existence of this backdoor to the fund.
I remember there was a well documented visit by CNBC's Bob Pisani to GLD's gold vault. This visit was organized by GLD's management to prove the existence of GLD's gold but the gold bar held up by Mr. Pisani had the serial number ZJ6752 which did not appear on the most recent bar list at that time. It was later discovered that this "GLD" bar was actually owned by ETF Securities.
Thanks for these gems Leigh. $PLAY's balance sheet is looking very robust along with their current prospects. I'll have to keep an eye on this one for the time being.
Thank you for this very well written piece Doug. I completely agree with your statement on the Fed dismissing bubbles as an outlier. They have done so repeatedly and it is a mistake every time. With the markets at record highs, I have a feeling that we're going to feel the consequences sooner rather than later this time around.
Latest Comments
Weak Productivity Growth Is A Global Problem
A very well written and detail rich article, thanks. The weak productivity growth does go hand in hand with the weak trade growth. This has been a developing trend but whether or not this trend will end anytime soon is another matter. Judging from the current political environment, I'm leaning towards no.
Stifel Tells Investors To Buy SeaWorld, Six Flags
Thanks for this piece. I do believe SIX is very undervalued at this point in time. On SEAS, however, I'm not all that confident on SEAS management team successfully executing a turnaround plan,
Dividend Aristocrat Cardinal Health Drops 12% – Buying Opportunity Or Value Trap?
An excellent piece that successfully captures all the issues currently plaguing CAH. My biggest concern with CAH is the uncertainty from the current political environment. The current politics will likely impact the healthcare sector in a significant manner but it is difficult to judge exactly which areas will be affected as no clear deals have surfaced to the public just yet.
GLD: A Picture Of Fear
"The SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) added 11.84 metric tons of gold on April 19. That’s the most since Sept. 6, 2016, and it brought the GLD’s holding to 860.76 metric tons."
I don't know how much I'd trust this data as there are no real options to verify any of this.
Gold Upleg Momentum Building
"The readiest proxy for gold investment demand is the holdings of that leading American GLD gold ETF. Unlike global gold supply-and-demand statistics which are only compiled and published quarterly, this dominant gold ETF releases its holdings daily. So they are the highest-resolution read available of what is going on in gold investment in real-time."
This is very misleading since GLD's movements are very insignificant compared to the overall gold market. The gold exchanges absolutely dwarf GLD's movements. Moreover, for quite some time, I have been hearing about how it is appropriate to follow the draw-downs and builds in the GLD ETF as a directional cue for gold price. But, the "logic" of this perspective always escaped me. Should we not expect that, if people are selling the GLD, draw-downs would be seen, and if people are buying the GLD, builds would be seen? Would that not make this "indicator" a lagging one, at best, and clearly not a leading indicator? Even in your own chart, you can see periods where the gold price leads GLD's holdings rather than the opposite.
In January, there was a 7.5% rise in the price of the GLD, which means people have been buying. Yet, since gold bottomed, GLD's holdings have fallen another 4.4%. Not only is it not a leading indicator, you can't even say it is a lagging indicator either. There are many other examples outside of this January example as well. This indicator has continually shown itself to be completely useless and irrelevant.
The daily holdings also don't mean much when there are absolutely no ways to verify any of it. Paper gold GLD claims to be fully backed by physical gold bullion but yet it refuses to give retail investors the right to redeem for any of these ‘claimed’ gold bullion. This fact alone would mean GLD shares are nothing more than paper at the end of the day. Furthermore, GLD’s prospectus is chalk full of weasel clauses and legal loopholes that allows the fund to get away without the full physical gold backing. One good example of this is the clause that states GLD has no right to audit subcustodial gold holdings. To this day, I have not heard of a single good reason for the existence of this audit loophole. I also hope people do not forget about the highly publicized visit by CNBC's Bob Pisani to GLD's gold vault. This visit was organized by GLD's management to prove the existence of GLD's gold but the gold bar held up by Mr. Pisani had the serial number ZJ6752 which did not appear on the most recent bar list at that time. It was later discovered that this "GLD" bar was actually owned by ETF Securities.
The Economy Is Like A Circus
Thank you Gail for this thought provoking piece. I'd like that while some debt is good from an economic standpoint, we also have to keep an eye on loan defaults. Recently there has been a spike up in this area which is a concerning signal for the overall economic health.
Gold ETFs Do Not Always Do The Same
I often see you making claims on GLD's holdings but I still have not seen any verifiable evidence to support any of these claims. How reliable are GLD's holding reports? GLD does not give retail investors the right to redeem for any of its mystery physical gold holdings. This fact alone ensures the GLD shares to be nothing more than paper at the end of the day. GLD also has a glaring audit loophole in their prospectus that states they have no right to audit subcustodial gold holdings. To this day, I have not heard of a single good reason for the existence of this backdoor to the fund.
I remember there was a well documented visit by CNBC's Bob Pisani to GLD's gold vault. This visit was organized by GLD's management to prove the existence of GLD's gold but the gold bar held up by Mr. Pisani had the serial number ZJ6752 which did not appear on the most recent bar list at that time. It was later discovered that this "GLD" bar was actually owned by ETF Securities.
Free Money! Banks Paid $22 Billion To Not Lend?
Very insightful, thanks Mish. This is without a doubt a taxpayer expense that has been overlooked by many.
3 Restaurant Stocks To Watch That Report Earnings Tomorrow - Tuesday, March 28
Thanks for these gems Leigh. $PLAY's balance sheet is looking very robust along with their current prospects. I'll have to keep an eye on this one for the time being.
Discussions On The Fed Put
Thank you for this very well written piece Doug. I completely agree with your statement on the Fed dismissing bubbles as an outlier. They have done so repeatedly and it is a mistake every time. With the markets at record highs, I have a feeling that we're going to feel the consequences sooner rather than later this time around.