I am a political scientist by training, having received a B.A. and M.A. in one of the least marketable college majors known to humanity. After struggling to find a full time position in the post-2008 world of higher education, I turned to the world of trading.
I am a political scientist by training, having received a B.A. and M.A. in one of the least marketable college majors known to humanity. After struggling to find a full time position in the post-2008 world of higher education, I turned to the world of trading.
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Latest Comments
Technical Rally To End Shortly, Lows Could Be Retested Late July
I think the selling could start to come in tomorrow afternoon or Friday, since most of this was short covering and not many people will want to hold a big bag over the weekend. SPY is precisely on the pivot point at $206.66 and seems to be correlating with WTI right now. if oil is red then maybe the selling will resume.
How Do I Turn Off All The Noise?
Tuning out the noise to me means avoiding the Stocktwits website like the plague, turning down the volume on CNBC, and turning OFF the TV completely when Jim Cramer is on. I agree with that trend trading the VIX is almost impossible right now. I feel terrible for the people holding TVIX and UVXY as they were hoping for the market to turn down again.
The Empire Strikes Back
This looks like a "fool's rally" to me. There was no basis for the financials to rally like they did today. Most of the daily and technical indicators are giving clear sell signals, although the fast stochastics show that a little bit more upside is possible tomorrow. Since fundamentals no longer matter in this matter, the technicals are all I can go by for the time being. Of course, a lot of big rallies start as oversold and short covering rallies, so nothing would surprise me at this point.
Today's Trading Plan: A Needed Bounce
These counter trend rallies can be extreme. 2040-2050 will be an ideal place for anyone who wants to buy SPY puts, inverse ETF's etc. IMO It's a good low-risk, high probability entry provided one puts in a proper stop in case bulls, for some reason, take should this higher. I rode this down with SPXS, but I will likely buy some puts once the 2040-2050 SPX range is hit.
Brexit Aftershocks
I agree regarding a short term rally. Two hour charts show stochastics turning up and BB's stretched. Daily and especially weekly charts are showing clear sell signals, though. It also looks like the SPY ETF is about to form the 50/100 SMA death cross; SPX did this back in May. Who knows what to make of the death cross, though? It's enough to keep me from getting long until I see some veritable buy signals...
The British Referendum And The Long Arm Of The Lawless
Although I'm not a conspiracy theorist by any means, I do wonder how far they will go to rig the vote. They've already introduced a leading bias into the ballot via instructions. Now there is the whole controversy over the use of pens and pencils. I just wonder if the torrential rains will give the Brexit side enough of an advantage to overcome the elites shenanigans?
Tesla Starting To Look A Lot Like SunEdison
Chartwise, it looks like TSLA could get a pop before heading down. I would love for this to bounce one good time before buying some put options on it.
"Black Swan" Bets Explode As Brexit Looms
I can't imagine wanting to make a directional bet on something as divided as Brexit/Bremain. It's virtually 50/50 right now, so I can't seem to find a justification for jumping in. As they, "when you don't know what to do, do nothing."
Gold’s Failed Breakouts
Everyone, even polar opposites like gold bugs and CNBC pundits, assert that gold is in a confirmed new bull market and is headed higher. The charts like you and many other have posted seem to show a completely different picture. If gold doesn't start moving higher, I could see a blow off top around the $1300 level. I'd love to believe the goldbug narrative, especially the one espoused by people like Rickards and Schiff, but it seems like gold has to really prove itself at this point. Until then I will sit on the sidelines a bit longer.
Rip Roaring Rally
I can't believe we could get such a rally based off dodgy polls that Bremain is leading by 1%. So many people have convinced themselves that they know what the outcome is going to on Thursday. Unless there is some extreme rigging, which is definitely possible, then Brexit is still very much on the table. My philosophy this week is to mostly just sit on hands. "When you don't know what to do, do nothing."