Earlier this week, I published an article on Anyoption.com’s blog about Apple’s stock price dipping to a 2 month low, and why we’re seeing the change. I thought the best way to debut here at TalkMarkets under my own name would be to go into more detail about the three things that Apple (AAPL) doesn’t want its investors paying attention to -- although Apple’s stock chart shows that investors are indeed taking note.
#1: Apple’s Unveilings Are Getting Worse
I’ve been a techie all my life. As a matter of fact, I remember adding the Sega Dreamcast to my video game collection when the video games only came in foreign languages. So naturally, year after year, I would patiently wait for Apple to unveil the new (and most likely mindblowing) technology it had come up with that would be available soon. I have to say the mystery was the most exciting part of the entire ordeal. Unfortunately, Apple has lost its touch. Last year’s unveiling was incredibly weak. As a matter of fact, I remember publishing a post about the Apple watch months before anyone was supposed to know anything about it. By the time the unveiling actually came, we knew what was coming and the excitement seemed to be … well… gone.
#2: Apple Is Purchasing Its Own Equity
When a publicly traded company has too many shares in limbo, it’s not uncommon for them to start purchasing those shares in an attempt to keep the stock price growing. The concept is relatively simple. When there is a large supply of shares and not enough demand for too long, the price per share drops. So, to stop the share price from dropping, the asset purchases its own shares; reducing the supply of the company’s stock. However, Apple seems to have gone overboard with the buyback concept. In Q4, they announced a $17 billion dollar buyback plan, resulting in more than $45 billion worth of shares that Apple has bought back since the beginning of fiscal 2014. So, what’s the problem?
Well, buying back shares isn’t uncommon, but massive buybacks can be a big issue. The reason this is a big issue is because at some point, Apple will not be able to continue hemorrhaging money into buying back stocks. When Apple stops reducing the supply, if demand stays at current levels, Apple’s stock price has nowhere to go but down.
#3: Apple’s Stock Has Been Downgraded
The botched unveiling that Apple did last year led the way for a downgrade. Pacific Crest Securities and others have downgraded Apple’s stock from a “buy” rating to a “neutral” rating. “Why,” you ask? Because following last year’s debacle of an unveiling, the company’s sales were very low, building upon concerns that Apple will not be able to keep up the growth momentum they’ve shown over the years. Pacific Crest Security cited poor expectations for iPhone and iWatch sales as reasons for their downgrading.
Final Thoughts
While I have a ton of faith in Apple’s ability to recover from a hit, I have to side with Pacific Crest Securities. The bottom line is that we’re talking about a massive company with a few massive issues. There’s no telling how long it will take for the company to start moving in the right direction again. Therefore, if you don’t already own the stock, I wouldn’t necessarily jump at the chance to buy it right now.
Apple is clearly doing something right, the company's sales blew all estimates away!
www.talkmarkets.com/.../apple-inc-smashes-earnings-estimates
They did blow expectations away with their report. However, I still think that the stock buy-backs we've seen over the past year are a bit scary. Nonetheless, the stock is soaring right now. I hope for Apple fans that the momentum continues.
Apple is more than just about the Iphone! One has to consider its cash reserves, market cap, debt ratio and potential to grow. If it is to continue its successes it must continue to diversify beyond the Iphone and Ipad because China and Korea are catching up. Huawei and Samsung are becoming increasingly competitive and Apple cannot afford to rest on its laurels.
I agree with you in the sense that they will most likely diversify. However, Apple really lost it's secretive abilities. The surprise at unveiling was what really made the sale for many. That's why I think their sales are down and they're going to continue having trouble until they figure some things out.
Hey StockHound. I agree, I should have elaborated more, I was in a rush. Anyway, what I meant by secretive abilities was Apple's ability to keep things under wraps until they are unveiled. We all wanted that surprise factor and I think that played big into their initial sales of any product line. Also, I'm watching the uptrend as we speak; and I'm not saying that Apple won't its good days like they are today, but overall, I think we're going to continue to see the stock move down in price over the next few months.
'secretive abilities' - that doesn't even mean anything! Also, did you happen to see today's results?
Nice article! It takes a brave person to say it like it is, especially when it comes to Apple. That company has more blind love than any other. But it's important to keep emotion out of it and just look at the cold hard facts when it comes to investing.
Thanks Mike!
Jobs was simply magic. The turnaround he engineered is nothing short of miraculous. And a touch of that magic has permeated into each of their product lines and will remain long after he's gone. Apple will keep going up because the company is loved by its customers. End of story.
Joshua, what do you think is behind such a massive buyback? $17 billion could have funded a tremendous amount of R&D and innovation.
I think I agree with what your saying completely. I have watched Apple over the years and they are just not innovating much anymore. They can only drag on with the iphone and ipad cycles for so long until people grow tired of upgrading all the time. Plus competitors are starting to gain traction in the smartphone space.
I think the IWatch idea can somehow work but it has to be launched with certain features. I mean if the watch has the same features as the phone then why buy it? I have to agree with Pacific Crest neutral rating" because right now a lot of investors and analysts are in wait and see mode. In other words is there something secret in the back of the pipeline they don't know about? If not then I don't see Apple returning back to the growth it had a few years ago and may eventually end up like Microsoft.
I certainly hope that Apple doesn't become the next Microsoft, but do agree that if they don't have anything up their sleeve and can't make a miracle happen over the next year or so, that may be exactly what happens. Thanks for commenting!
Apple always has something up its sleeve. The company will yet surprise us.
Apple's strength has never been to invent new products. Where they excel is in taking products that have not reached their potential and improving upon them. They weren't the first to invent the tablet, smart phone, watch tech, or MP3, but they've made the best of each and made them mainstream.
I agree to an extent. While they haven't invented the laptop, smart phone, or even MP3, they've been the innovators in the technology that has made these devices what they are today. For me, that's what was exciting about the unveiling. Not just the types of products, but the things new technologies could make our computers, phones, and watches do was the exciting part. However, Apple has lost that flare, and that's the main point. The company can't keep a secret to save its life. So, there's not much that's too exciting about their unveiling day anymore; we already know what's coming! The lack of excitement definitely is a drag on sales and a straw on the camel's back when it comes to Apple's ability to continue growing at a fast rate.
Few dare to remember Apple was a company plagued by lack of vision and no leadership before Jobs. After Jobs he left a very shrewd operations manager that can hold Apple together, but it still needs vision, and innovation. You can get by with decent leadership and financial and operational sideshows for just so long. Apple is a tech company. Aside from bringing forth Job's last visions they have yet to produce anything innovative beyond Jobs. I hate to thing what will happen when they consider advancements in their OS which is built of Next computer code. What comes next after Next, lol.
Actually, Apple has broken many of Jobs' rules to much success. He said they couldn't have a tablet smaller than the iPad's 10.1" screen. Yet after he passed, they came out with the iPad Mini which went on to be their best selling tablet. Jobs said not to make a bigger iPhone, yet that did just that. He even said no to philanthropy, but they brought that back too
Good point. Personally I don't care if Apple invents new products. Their magic is in taking current products and making them even better.
Yes Alexis, he wasn't much of a donor personally or professionally and when Apple first brought him back, he ended all of the company's philanthropic activities. His excuse was that the company had to focus on becoming profitable again. But the ban was never lifted even after Apple become one of the most profitable public companies ever.
One of Tim Cook's first acts as CEO was to reinstitute the company's charitable donation matching plan. I'll be attacked for saying this, but in many ways, Cook is a better CEO than Jobs ever was. Jobs was a visionary, but was often blinded by those vision and unwilling to see anything else.
Jobs banned philanthropy?