The price target seems a bit too high for my taste. $FB's user growth has been slowing for quite some time in addition to an uptick in inactive accounts. These factors will play into their attractiveness to current and future advertisers. Their heavy reliance on advertising revenue also makes them vulnerable to seasonal swings similar to $GOOG. All in all, not a fan.
With regards to #Apple's exposure to China, the current administration could also negatively impact this front via a trade war. Some are understandably skeptical of this actually coming to full fruition but judging by rhetoric and promise, the chance of this happening has increased. I'd imagine we'll be hearing sooner rather than later on this subject as it is a major point of contention for the current administration. $AAPL
"As a binary option trader, the most important determinant of gold strength or weakness now is GLD SPDR Gold shares ETF."
This is extremely misleading all around. GLD's movements are so very insignificant compared to the overall gold market. The gold exchanges absolutely dwarf GLD's movements. For quite some time, I have been hearing about how it is appropriate to follow the draw-downs and builds in the GLD ETF as a directional cue for gold price. But, the "logic" of this perspective always escaped me. Should we not expect that, if people are selling the GLD, draw-downs would be seen, and if people are buying the GLD, builds would be seen? Would that not make this "indicator" a lagging one, at best, and clearly not a leading indicator?
On top of all that, I'm finding this fund to be a bit sketchy after spending considerable time doing my due diligence into it. I'd really like to know why I'm seeing the following clause in the GLD prospectus: "In addition, the Trustee has no right to visit the premises of any subcustodian for the purposes of examining the Trust's gold or any records maintained by the subcustodian, and no subcustodian is obligated to cooperate in any review the Trustee may wish to conduct of the facilities, procedures, records or creditworthiness of such subcustodian." What is the purpose of this audit loophole? Additionally, the GLD organizations promise that this fund is 100% backed by actual physical gold but yet they absolutely refuse to give retail investors the right to any of their claimed physical gold.
CNBC's Bob Pisani also made a highly publicized visit to GLD's gold vault in a segment called Gold Rush: The Mother Lode. GLD's administration organized this visit to show that GLD's gold actually exists. However, the gold bar held up by Mr. Pisani showed a serial number of ZJ6752 which did not show up on the latest bar list during that time. It was later found that this "GLD" bar actually belonged to ETF Securities. Finally, I've checked out the following statement seen around TalkMarkets commentary to be true and welcome anyone interested to see for themselves:
"Did anyone try calling the GLD hotline at 866▪320▪4053 in search of numerical details on GLD's insurance? The prospectus vaguely states "The Custodian maintains insurance with regard to its business on such terms and conditions as it considers appropriate which does not cover the full amount of gold held in custody." When I asked about how much of the gold was insured, the representative proceeded to act as if he didn't know and said they were just the "marketing agent" for GLD. What kind of marketing agent would not know such basic information about a product they are marketing? It seems like they are deliberately hiding information from investors."
$NVDA has to be one of my favorites of 2016 as discussed in this video. I also believe they still have so much more room to grow in 2017 despite their already tremendous growth. Their whole sector has been on the rise which will equate to a bigger pool to play in. The NVDA product specs are also a step ahead of the competition.
I'm inclined to agree with many of your points as it wouldn't be correct to blanket categorize the least active player as dumb money. I believe it is a mistake to apply a blanket categorization in the broad subject of passive versus active investing from the start. Dumb money implies perpetual or an ultimate loss in the end. Both passive and active strategies have their merits and weaknesses as touched upon in this piece. Neither can be conclusively determined to be a vehicle for perpetual or an ultimate loss in the end.
"However, this picture is still not supported by gold flows reported by GLD"
Simple Digressions, are there any reasons why you keep trying to mislead investors with this questionable indicator even after it is proven to be deeply flawed? In your previous articles from other sites, you have also tried this tactic and have been called out for it. Please explain the period after November 2012 when GLD's holdings were increasing or flat while the gold price plummeted. GLD's holdings plummeted later on as a result. Which data leads which data again?
You also ignore the fact that GLD's movements are more or less insignificant when you look at the rest of the gold market. How accurate of a picture can you get from such a small indicator when compared to the size of the gold market? The activity in the gold exchanges alone dwarfs the activity in GLD. I'm also in agreement with the many SA readers that state GLD's holdings itself is questionable at best. How reliable are GLD's holding reports? GLD does not give retail investors the right to redeem for any of its mystery physical gold holdings. This fact alone ensures the GLD shares to be nothing more than paper at the end of the day. GLD also has a glaring audit loophole in their prospectus that states they have no right to audit subcustodial gold holdings. To this day, I have not heard of a single good reason for the existence of this backdoor to the fund.
I remember there was a highly publicized visit by CNBC's Bob Pisani to GLD's gold vault. This visit was organized by GLD's management to prove the existence of GLD's gold but the gold bar held up by Mr. Pisani had the serial number ZJ6752 which did not appear on the most recent bar list at that time. It was later discovered that this "GLD" bar was actually owned by ETF Securities.
There is also credibility to the following red flags that I've read around TalkMarkets and welcome everyone else to verify for themselves:
"Did anyone try calling the GLD hotline at 866▪320▪4053 in search of numerical details on GLD's insurance? The prospectus vaguely states "The Custodian maintains insurance with regard to its business on such terms and conditions as it considers appropriate which does not cover the full amount of gold held in custody." When I asked about how much of the gold was insured, the representative proceeded to act as if he didn't know and said they were just the "marketing agent" for GLD. What kind of marketing agent would not know such basic information about a product they are marketing? It seems like they are deliberately hiding information from investors."
Thank you Jeff for this very interesting look into smartphone assistants Jeff. Even with the head start Siri has, Google's ability to develop deep learning AI is a force to be reckon with. Google's Alpha Go success has proven as much. Even if Google assistant could not perform to the level Siri has been performing, I have no doubt in my mind that it will eventually surpass Siri.
A market built on air at a time when the market is at record highs. There is just way too much unsubstantiated optimism in the market right now. Stocks are expensive at these levels.
I'm still not certain about the privatization of otherwise public roads. Profit seeking private developers should exacerbate the overall costs to build these public roads even if these costs are not immediately apparent. I also don't see the less profitable roads being developed at all.
"Popular GLD fund is fully backed by physical metal but redemption (receiving physical metal) was available only for JP Morgan lately. If SPDR Gold Trust fails to prove it is able to supply any amount of metal to every financial institution it will be written off, just like Comex."
I can't say I'm surprised. Paper gold GLD claims to be fully backed by physical gold bullion but yet it refuses to give retail investors the right to redeem for any of these ‘claimed’ gold bullion. This fact alone would mean GLD shares are nothing more than paper at the end of the day. Furthermore, GLD’s prospectus is chalk full of weasel clauses and legal loopholes that allows the fund to get away without the full physical gold backing. One good example of this is the clause that states GLD has no right to audit subcustodial gold holdings. To this day, I have not heard of a single good reason for the existence of this audit loophole.
I also remember there was a well documented visit by CNBC's Bob Pisani to GLD's gold vault. This visit was organized by GLD's management to prove the existence of GLD's gold but the gold bar held up by Mr. Pisani had the serial number ZJ6752 which did not appear on the most recent bar list at that time. It was later discovered that this "GLD" bar was actually owned by ETF Securities.
Latest Comments
Jefferies Ups Facebook Target To $175 On Mobile Strength
The price target seems a bit too high for my taste. $FB's user growth has been slowing for quite some time in addition to an uptick in inactive accounts. These factors will play into their attractiveness to current and future advertisers. Their heavy reliance on advertising revenue also makes them vulnerable to seasonal swings similar to $GOOG. All in all, not a fan.
Why Barclays Downgraded Apple
With regards to #Apple's exposure to China, the current administration could also negatively impact this front via a trade war. Some are understandably skeptical of this actually coming to full fruition but judging by rhetoric and promise, the chance of this happening has increased. I'd imagine we'll be hearing sooner rather than later on this subject as it is a major point of contention for the current administration. $AAPL
Gold Bugs Chuffed At Volatility In Financial Markets
"As a binary option trader, the most important determinant of gold strength or weakness now is GLD SPDR Gold shares ETF."
This is extremely misleading all around. GLD's movements are so very insignificant compared to the overall gold market. The gold exchanges absolutely dwarf GLD's movements. For quite some time, I have been hearing about how it is appropriate to follow the draw-downs and builds in the GLD ETF as a directional cue for gold price. But, the "logic" of this perspective always escaped me. Should we not expect that, if people are selling the GLD, draw-downs would be seen, and if people are buying the GLD, builds would be seen? Would that not make this "indicator" a lagging one, at best, and clearly not a leading indicator?
On top of all that, I'm finding this fund to be a bit sketchy after spending considerable time doing my due diligence into it. I'd really like to know why I'm seeing the following clause in the GLD prospectus: "In addition, the Trustee has no right to visit the premises of any subcustodian for the purposes of examining the Trust's gold or any records maintained by the subcustodian, and no subcustodian is obligated to cooperate in any review the Trustee may wish to conduct of the facilities, procedures, records or creditworthiness of such subcustodian." What is the purpose of this audit loophole? Additionally, the GLD organizations promise that this fund is 100% backed by actual physical gold but yet they absolutely refuse to give retail investors the right to any of their claimed physical gold.
CNBC's Bob Pisani also made a highly publicized visit to GLD's gold vault in a segment called Gold Rush: The Mother Lode. GLD's administration organized this visit to show that GLD's gold actually exists. However, the gold bar held up by Mr. Pisani showed a serial number of ZJ6752 which did not show up on the latest bar list during that time. It was later found that this "GLD" bar actually belonged to ETF Securities. Finally, I've checked out the following statement seen around TalkMarkets commentary to be true and welcome anyone interested to see for themselves:
"Did anyone try calling the GLD hotline at 866▪320▪4053 in search of numerical details on GLD's insurance? The prospectus vaguely states "The Custodian maintains insurance with regard to its business on such terms and conditions as it considers appropriate which does not cover the full amount of gold held in custody." When I asked about how much of the gold was insured, the representative proceeded to act as if he didn't know and said they were just the "marketing agent" for GLD. What kind of marketing agent would not know such basic information about a product they are marketing? It seems like they are deliberately hiding information from investors."
The Big Trades Of 2016
$NVDA has to be one of my favorites of 2016 as discussed in this video. I also believe they still have so much more room to grow in 2017 despite their already tremendous growth. Their whole sector has been on the rise which will equate to a bigger pool to play in. The NVDA product specs are also a step ahead of the competition.
Passive Investors – Dumb Money Or Smart Money?
I'm inclined to agree with many of your points as it wouldn't be correct to blanket categorize the least active player as dumb money. I believe it is a mistake to apply a blanket categorization in the broad subject of passive versus active investing from the start. Dumb money implies perpetual or an ultimate loss in the end. Both passive and active strategies have their merits and weaknesses as touched upon in this piece. Neither can be conclusively determined to be a vehicle for perpetual or an ultimate loss in the end.
This Gold Rally Is Suspicious
"However, this picture is still not supported by gold flows reported by GLD"
Simple Digressions, are there any reasons why you keep trying to mislead investors with this questionable indicator even after it is proven to be deeply flawed? In your previous articles from other sites, you have also tried this tactic and have been called out for it. Please explain the period after November 2012 when GLD's holdings were increasing or flat while the gold price plummeted. GLD's holdings plummeted later on as a result. Which data leads which data again?
You also ignore the fact that GLD's movements are more or less insignificant when you look at the rest of the gold market. How accurate of a picture can you get from such a small indicator when compared to the size of the gold market? The activity in the gold exchanges alone dwarfs the activity in GLD. I'm also in agreement with the many SA readers that state GLD's holdings itself is questionable at best. How reliable are GLD's holding reports? GLD does not give retail investors the right to redeem for any of its mystery physical gold holdings. This fact alone ensures the GLD shares to be nothing more than paper at the end of the day. GLD also has a glaring audit loophole in their prospectus that states they have no right to audit subcustodial gold holdings. To this day, I have not heard of a single good reason for the existence of this backdoor to the fund.
I remember there was a highly publicized visit by CNBC's Bob Pisani to GLD's gold vault. This visit was organized by GLD's management to prove the existence of GLD's gold but the gold bar held up by Mr. Pisani had the serial number ZJ6752 which did not appear on the most recent bar list at that time. It was later discovered that this "GLD" bar was actually owned by ETF Securities.
There is also credibility to the following red flags that I've read around TalkMarkets and welcome everyone else to verify for themselves:
"Did anyone try calling the GLD hotline at 866▪320▪4053 in search of numerical details on GLD's insurance? The prospectus vaguely states "The Custodian maintains insurance with regard to its business on such terms and conditions as it considers appropriate which does not cover the full amount of gold held in custody." When I asked about how much of the gold was insured, the representative proceeded to act as if he didn't know and said they were just the "marketing agent" for GLD. What kind of marketing agent would not know such basic information about a product they are marketing? It seems like they are deliberately hiding information from investors."
The Battle Of Smartphone Assistants: Siri Vs. Google Assistant
Thank you Jeff for this very interesting look into smartphone assistants Jeff. Even with the head start Siri has, Google's ability to develop deep learning AI is a force to be reckon with. Google's Alpha Go success has proven as much. Even if Google assistant could not perform to the level Siri has been performing, I have no doubt in my mind that it will eventually surpass Siri.
The Bank Of Japan Was The Top Buyer Of Japanese Stocks In 2016
A market built on air at a time when the market is at record highs. There is just way too much unsubstantiated optimism in the market right now. Stocks are expensive at these levels.
Donald Trump Cannot Increase Aggregate Demand
I'm still not certain about the privatization of otherwise public roads. Profit seeking private developers should exacerbate the overall costs to build these public roads even if these costs are not immediately apparent. I also don't see the less profitable roads being developed at all.
The World Of Gold Is About To Change
"Popular GLD fund is fully backed by physical metal but redemption (receiving physical metal) was available only for JP Morgan lately. If SPDR Gold Trust fails to prove it is able to supply any amount of metal to every financial institution it will be written off, just like Comex."
I can't say I'm surprised. Paper gold GLD claims to be fully backed by physical gold bullion but yet it refuses to give retail investors the right to redeem for any of these ‘claimed’ gold bullion. This fact alone would mean GLD shares are nothing more than paper at the end of the day. Furthermore, GLD’s prospectus is chalk full of weasel clauses and legal loopholes that allows the fund to get away without the full physical gold backing. One good example of this is the clause that states GLD has no right to audit subcustodial gold holdings. To this day, I have not heard of a single good reason for the existence of this audit loophole.
I also remember there was a well documented visit by CNBC's Bob Pisani to GLD's gold vault. This visit was organized by GLD's management to prove the existence of GLD's gold but the gold bar held up by Mr. Pisani had the serial number ZJ6752 which did not appear on the most recent bar list at that time. It was later discovered that this "GLD" bar was actually owned by ETF Securities.