Copper price has risen above $4,50 again. Prices of gold, silver and Moly have risen substantially. That means the NPV of Oroco's project is, using today's spot prices, nearing CAD$3 billion in. The total market is only CAD$85M, equating to ~3% of the NPV. That is really low.
I know the company is underfunded and Mexico's politics is volatile, but still. Something has to give.
Unfortunately, shares of Oroco continue to slide. This stock hasnt' gone up materially in almost 6 months. Only selling. The company did release an updated PEA, but the numbers weren't that impressive. The stock does trade at quite a low valuation (4% of the NPV), but there is no clear outlook for a new drill program, the path to a PFS or how they will acquire new funds. In a time that a lot of gold and silver stocks are breaking out, the market is leaving Oroco for what it appears to be: a DOA asset. Still holding, but to be honest it's a hopium stock from here now.
Just a quick rundown: at this copper price, the actual NPV of their Santa Tomas copper deposit is $2,3 billion per their latest PEA. And, they are working on updating the PEA, which will undoubtly increase this NPV.
At the current market cap of just $120 million, this company trades at a mere 5% of this NPV. Buy-outs take place between 30% to 50% of the NPV (for updated PEA/PFS projects and given the grade).
That's at least a 6X from here, and potentially 10X if you believe in a buy-out. Even in a huge take-under scenario, you can easily triple your investment by buying and holding Oroco stock at todays price levels. Of course, the timeline is uncertain and they will dilute at some point. No advice, but I'm buying more here.
I have a position yes. Still holdling, no point in selling here. I still believe in a copper bull market and a sale of Oroco to a big miner, although the upside potential is somewhat trimmed due to dilution. Can take a while, so it's a sleeper for now.
A painful raise today at 40 cents with a full warrant. Explains the massive drop in recent days, people got out to participate in the raise and get a free warrant. Only 2,5M though, so I suspect they are buying themselves time to find a strategic partner. Reason is a PFS costs much more, so they need way more funding. I don't see much upside near-term, unless a big miner comes into play. Or the copper price skyrocketing.
Unfortunately, the share price keeps going lower. Out of the last 25 trading days, 24 days ended in de red. That's brutal. The market is very punitive for Oroco, because they are not telling how they are going to raise the money needed for a new drilling program. Shorters in action? Who knows. And at what price will they raise? The stock price dropped in half already. I grossly miscalculated management's ability to navigate the financial markets. However, I do believe in the value of it's copper deposit, so one day this has to bounce back up.
to be honest, I didn't expect the share price to get beaten up like this. I guess the market is very harsh for exploration companies low on cash that do not communicate how they are going to raise the money for a new drilling program. In this a PFS or an updated PEA. The low copper price doesn't help of course.
Finally, the PEA got out. Look on their website. Mind you, the numbers are highly sensitive to assumed metal prices. And discount rate. The market reacted somewhat positive, share price rose a little bit on high volume (but not massive). Big question mark now is: how will they get the $20M financing for a new drilling program and PFS? Anyway, this is a steal if you believe in a buy-out scenario (still x5 potential).
Latest Comments
Why I Bought Oroco Shares For A 5X Return
Copper price has risen above $4,50 again. Prices of gold, silver and Moly have risen substantially. That means the NPV of Oroco's project is, using today's spot prices, nearing CAD$3 billion in. The total market is only CAD$85M, equating to ~3% of the NPV. That is really low.
I know the company is underfunded and Mexico's politics is volatile, but still. Something has to give.
Why I Bought Oroco Shares For A 5X Return
I will look into that. Meanwhile, Oroco trades at a fraction of the average M&A deal of developers in the copper space: https://x.com/minenergybiz_/status/1838202292018761947
Just give you an idea how insane the upside is here.....
Why I Bought Oroco Shares For A 5X Return
Unfortunately, shares of Oroco continue to slide. This stock hasnt' gone up materially in almost 6 months. Only selling. The company did release an updated PEA, but the numbers weren't that impressive. The stock does trade at quite a low valuation (4% of the NPV), but there is no clear outlook for a new drill program, the path to a PFS or how they will acquire new funds. In a time that a lot of gold and silver stocks are breaking out, the market is leaving Oroco for what it appears to be: a DOA asset. Still holding, but to be honest it's a hopium stock from here now.
Why I Bought Oroco Shares For A 5X Return
Ok people, the copper price sits at $4,50.
Just a quick rundown: at this copper price, the actual NPV of their Santa Tomas copper deposit is $2,3 billion per their latest PEA. And, they are working on updating the PEA, which will undoubtly increase this NPV.
At the current market cap of just $120 million, this company trades at a mere 5% of this NPV. Buy-outs take place between 30% to 50% of the NPV (for updated PEA/PFS projects and given the grade).
That's at least a 6X from here, and potentially 10X if you believe in a buy-out. Even in a huge take-under scenario, you can easily triple your investment by buying and holding Oroco stock at todays price levels. Of course, the timeline is uncertain and they will dilute at some point. No advice, but I'm buying more here.
Why I Bought Oroco Shares For A 5X Return
Oroco shares back at 60 cents CAD. Up more than 50% from the low this year.
Why I Bought Oroco Shares For A 5X Return
I have a position yes. Still holdling, no point in selling here. I still believe in a copper bull market and a sale of Oroco to a big miner, although the upside potential is somewhat trimmed due to dilution. Can take a while, so it's a sleeper for now.
Why I Bought Oroco Shares For A 5X Return
A painful raise today at 40 cents with a full warrant. Explains the massive drop in recent days, people got out to participate in the raise and get a free warrant. Only 2,5M though, so I suspect they are buying themselves time to find a strategic partner. Reason is a PFS costs much more, so they need way more funding. I don't see much upside near-term, unless a big miner comes into play. Or the copper price skyrocketing.
Why I Bought Oroco Shares For A 5X Return
Unfortunately, the share price keeps going lower. Out of the last 25 trading days, 24 days ended in de red. That's brutal. The market is very punitive for Oroco, because they are not telling how they are going to raise the money needed for a new drilling program. Shorters in action? Who knows. And at what price will they raise? The stock price dropped in half already. I grossly miscalculated management's ability to navigate the financial markets. However, I do believe in the value of it's copper deposit, so one day this has to bounce back up.
Why I Bought Oroco Shares For A 5X Return
to be honest, I didn't expect the share price to get beaten up like this. I guess the market is very harsh for exploration companies low on cash that do not communicate how they are going to raise the money for a new drilling program. In this a PFS or an updated PEA. The low copper price doesn't help of course.
Why I Bought Oroco Shares For A 5X Return
Finally, the PEA got out. Look on their website. Mind you, the numbers are highly sensitive to assumed metal prices. And discount rate. The market reacted somewhat positive, share price rose a little bit on high volume (but not massive). Big question mark now is: how will they get the $20M financing for a new drilling program and PFS? Anyway, this is a steal if you believe in a buy-out scenario (still x5 potential).