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Daniel Nevins, DFA is the author of "Economics for Independent Thinkers" and proprietor of nevinsresearch.com.

He has invested professionally for thirty years, including more than a decade at both J.P. Morgan and SEI ... more

Articles

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EC Where Is That Confounded Recession?
Here is a closer look at the "Big 3" recession precursors. It's too soon to bet on a U.S. recession.
U.S. Recession Watch: The Six-Cycle Forecast - Part II
The economy’s positive forces appear strong enough to keep the negative forces in check through probably the rest of the year, so the expansion should continue into 2020.
U.S. Recession Watch: The Six-Cycle Forecast - Part I
The best recession screen begins with a conceptual view of how the component cycles and other economic forces fit together. That might seem an innocuous thing to say—but it’s different from the typical leading economic index.
Testing The Fed's Narrative With The Fed's Data: QT Edition
In a single chart, we show that the financial sector's response to QE and QT fails to match the Fed’s expectations.
TSP Indicator Update: Criss-Cross, Flip-Flop And Remembering 1966
Of all the clues to the timing of the next recession, we argue that our measure of “thin-air spending power” (TSP) is likely to be the most prescient. Our latest TSP update brings to mind the Fed’s dramatic policy flip-flop in 1966.
You Might Like To Watch This Picture As Asset Prices Fall
Economic theory says all lending is the same - how can banks be different?
Message For Bond Investors: Don't Fight Financial Repression
Investors might be interested in this month’s alarming debt projections from the CBO, which beg the question: Is America’s near-vertical debt trajectory bullish or bearish for bond holders?
EC A Bullish Bond Argument That Hides In Plain Sight
According to the consensus outlook, long Treasury yields will climb steadily higher. Same old, same old, right? Actually, it’s not that simple—other elements of the consensus are now telling us just the opposite.
Our Best Stock Market Indicator Is Flashing Yellow
Stocks are most likely to tumble when the Fed loses control of inflation, so it’s important to know where the Fed stands versus the “curve.”
The Fonzie-Ponzi Theory Of Government Debt
An important question in today’s economy and financial markets is “How much government debt is too much?” Here’s my answer, which I’ll explain in the most obvious way—by pitting Arthur Fonzarelli against Charles Ponzi, of course.
The Fed Just Made Its Most Hawkish Turn In 30+ Years (Did Anyone Notice?)
I compared the language from Jerome Powell’s June 13 press conference to earlier Fed press conferences, speeches and other materials, and one difference stands out. Unlike Greenspan, Bernanke or Yellen, Powell says he intends to pop bubbles.
A Business-Cycle Indicator For Independent Thinkers, Part 2
Just about everyone keeps a close eye on the economy’s borrowers these days, but there aren't as many eyes on the lenders. After subdividing debt by the type of lender, we find a recession indicator that demands our attention.
A Business-Cycle Indicator For Independent Thinkers, Part 1
An ill-assorted cast of characters walks us through money, banking and the business cycle. Some characters flaunt conventional thinking, whereas others insist on doing everything by the textbook. Which group do you trust most?
A Contrarian Take On The Great Yield Curve Scare
We argue that much of the recent commentary about the flattening of the yield curve is overly pessimistic. A careful look at past business cycles shows that the current shape of the curve is historically early- or mid-cycle, not late-cycle.
8 Things To Know About Last Week's CBO Report
The CBO released its ten-year budget outlook last week. Before you take the report at face value, here's what you need to know.
A Handy Guide To This Afternoon's CBO Report
The CBO releases its 10-year budget and debt outlook this afternoon. Before you take the figures at face value, here's what you need to know.
1 to 16 of 23 Posts
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