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Daniel Nevins, DFA is the author of "Economics for Independent Thinkers" and proprietor of nevinsresearch.com.

He has invested professionally for thirty years, including more than a decade at both J.P. Morgan and SEI ... more

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You Might Like To Watch This Picture As Asset Prices Fall
Economic theory says all lending is the same - how can banks be different?
Message For Bond Investors: Don't Fight Financial Repression
Investors might be interested in this month’s alarming debt projections from the CBO, which beg the question: Is America’s near-vertical debt trajectory bullish or bearish for bond holders?
EC A Bullish Bond Argument That Hides In Plain Sight
According to the consensus outlook, long Treasury yields will climb steadily higher. Same old, same old, right? Actually, it’s not that simple—other elements of the consensus are now telling us just the opposite.
Our Best Stock Market Indicator Is Flashing Yellow
Stocks are most likely to tumble when the Fed loses control of inflation, so it’s important to know where the Fed stands versus the “curve.”
The Fonzie-Ponzi Theory Of Government Debt
An important question in today’s economy and financial markets is “How much government debt is too much?” Here’s my answer, which I’ll explain in the most obvious way—by pitting Arthur Fonzarelli against Charles Ponzi, of course.
The Fed Just Made Its Most Hawkish Turn In 30+ Years (Did Anyone Notice?)
I compared the language from Jerome Powell’s June 13 press conference to earlier Fed press conferences, speeches and other materials, and one difference stands out. Unlike Greenspan, Bernanke or Yellen, Powell says he intends to pop bubbles.
A Business-Cycle Indicator For Independent Thinkers, Part 2
Just about everyone keeps a close eye on the economy’s borrowers these days, but there aren't as many eyes on the lenders. After subdividing debt by the type of lender, we find a recession indicator that demands our attention.
A Business-Cycle Indicator For Independent Thinkers, Part 1
An ill-assorted cast of characters walks us through money, banking and the business cycle. Some characters flaunt conventional thinking, whereas others insist on doing everything by the textbook. Which group do you trust most?
A Contrarian Take On The Great Yield Curve Scare
We argue that much of the recent commentary about the flattening of the yield curve is overly pessimistic. A careful look at past business cycles shows that the current shape of the curve is historically early- or mid-cycle, not late-cycle.
8 Things To Know About Last Week's CBO Report
The CBO released its ten-year budget outlook last week. Before you take the report at face value, here's what you need to know.
A Handy Guide To This Afternoon's CBO Report
The CBO releases its 10-year budget and debt outlook this afternoon. Before you take the figures at face value, here's what you need to know.
New Research Foretells QE Domination
A new research paper presented in Chicago last month has debunked the central banking community’s beliefs about QE. Based on early indications, though, the Fed's response won’t be as the paper’s authors intended.
This Isn't Your Grandfather's (1960s) Inflation Scare
Recent tax cuts and spending increases bring to mind the late 1960s. Lyndon B. Johnson also stimulated the economy late in an expansion, helping to spark fifteen years of high inflation. What are the lessons for today?
An Inflation Indicator To Watch, Part 3
All eyes are on inflation—by figuring out if the recent inflation scare is real or overblown, you might predict bond yields, stock prices and more. Here’s an indicator that might help.
An Inflation Indicator To Watch, Part 2
All eyes are on inflation—by figuring out if the recent inflation scare is real or overblown, you might predict bond yields, stock prices and more. Here’s an indicator that might help.
An Inflation Indicator To Watch, Part 1
All eyes are on inflation—by figuring out if the recent inflation scare is real or overblown, you might predict bond yields, stock prices and more. Here’s an indicator that might help.
1 to 16 of 18 Posts
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