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Contributor's Links: Nevins Research

Daniel Nevins, DFA is the author of "Economics for Independent Thinkers" and proprietor of nevinsresearch.com.

He has invested professionally for thirty years, including more than a decade at both J.P. Morgan and SEI ... more

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EC Where Is That Confounded Recession?
Here is a closer look at the "Big 3" recession precursors. It's too soon to bet on a U.S. recession.
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U.S. Recession Watch: The Six-Cycle Forecast - Part II
The economy’s positive forces appear strong enough to keep the negative forces in check through probably the rest of the year, so the expansion should continue into 2020.
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U.S. Recession Watch: The Six-Cycle Forecast - Part I
The best recession screen begins with a conceptual view of how the component cycles and other economic forces fit together. That might seem an innocuous thing to say—but it’s different from the typical leading economic index.
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Testing The Fed's Narrative With The Fed's Data: QT Edition
In a single chart, we show that the financial sector's response to QE and QT fails to match the Fed’s expectations.
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TSP Indicator Update: Criss-Cross, Flip-Flop And Remembering 1966
Of all the clues to the timing of the next recession, we argue that our measure of “thin-air spending power” (TSP) is likely to be the most prescient. Our latest TSP update brings to mind the Fed’s dramatic policy flip-flop in 1966.
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You Might Like To Watch This Picture As Asset Prices Fall
Economic theory says all lending is the same - how can banks be different?
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