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Update Of Our Asset Allocation Models

Date: Thursday, February 21, 2019 10:12 PM EDT

With the start of our new application we have added new strategies, portfolios and some popular lazy portfolios as starting point for further research.

We’ve been asked by some followers to provide a short summary of the available options here at TalkMarkets, so here it is:

Strategy: Top 3 Strategies: This strategy selects the top three performers from our core strategies, based on the most recent 3 month performance, and allocates one third to each of them.Note that very often the strategy will invest in the more aggressive of our strategies, which might not be suitable for all investors. You can create your version of this strategy with our Portfolio Builder. Simply select the top 2, 3, or 4 strategies and assign equal weights to each or adjust your allocations for your risk level. You will need to manually review and update the top performers periodically.

Strategy: Bond ETF Rotation Strategy: The Bond Rotation Strategy is one of our core investment strategies. It is appropriate for investors looking to collect bond dividends while pursuing growth by rotating between bond sectors. The strategy evaluates and allocates to the best performing bond ETFs including treasuries, TIPS, foreign, high-yield and convertible bonds. This is a good strategy if you are looking for a safe long-term investment with low risk.

Strategy: BUG Permanent Portfolio Strategy: The BUG strategy is one of our more conservative strategies. The strategy does not attempt to predict prices or the future state of the economy. It holds a broad diversified number of assets that complement each other, each performing well in a different economic environment such as inflation, deflation, growth and stagnation. It is meant for long term, steady growth and low risk.It inherits part of its logic from Harry Browne’s tried-and-true Permanent Portfolio and the publicized workings of the All-Weather portfolio.

Portfolio: Conservative Risk Portfolio: Recommended for: Capital preservation, liquidity and for investors close to or in retirement.The Conservative Portfolio is appropriate for an investor with a low risk tolerance or a need to make withdrawals over the next 1 to 3 years. Conservative investors are willing to accept lower returns in exchange for lower account drawdowns in periods of market volatility.To be compatible with most retirement plans, this Portfolio does not include our Maximum Yield Strategy and leveraged Universal Investment Strategy. If you are using a more flexible account you can choose from our unconstrained portfolios in the Portfolio Library.We also offer a version for 401k plans which do not allow individual stocks.

Portfolio: Max Drawdown less than 10%: This portfolio has been optimized for achieving the highest possible return while limiting the maximum Drawdown, that is the highest drop from peak to valley over the analyzed period, to 10%. As a reference, the maximum experienced drawdown of the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) over the same period has been 27%, while the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) experienced a drop of 55%.As such it is a moderate Portfolio suited for investors with a limited risk tolerance and moderate growth expectations.Please note that the Maximum DrawDown refers to a single event, for analyzing the risk of losses you should also consider other related metrics like the maximum and average duration and the Ulcer Ratio. A more reliable measure for the downside risk of an asset over a period of time is the Downside Deviation or Volatility.Please note that this portfolio might use leveraged ETF and single stocks. Should these not be allowed in your retirement account please see our 401k and IRS compatible Conservative, Moderate, and Aggressive Risk Portfolios. Contact us for special requirements

Portfolio: Max Drawdown less than 15%: This portfolio has been optimized for achieving the highest possible return while limiting the maximum Drawdown, that is the highest drop from peak to valley over the analyzed period, to 15%. As a reference, the maximum experienced drawdown of the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) over the same period has been 27%, while the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) experienced a drop of 55%.As such it is a aggressive Portfolio suited for investors with a higher risk tolerance and aggressive growth expectations.Please note that the Maximum DrawDown refers to a single event, for analyzing the risk of losses you should also consider other related metrics like the maximum and average duration and the Ulcer Ratio. A more reliable measure for the downside risk of an asset over a period of time is the Downside Deviation or Volatility.Please note that this portfolio might use leveraged ETF and single stocks. Should these not be allowed in your retirement account please see our 401k and IRS compatible Conservative, Moderate, and Aggressive Risk Portfolios. Contact us for special requirements.

Strategy: Gold-Currency Strategy II: The Gold-Currency Strategy II takes advantage of the historically negative correlation between gold and the U.S. dollar. It switches between the two assets based on their recent risk adjusted performance enabling the strategy to provide protection against severe gold corrections due to dollar strength. It is an excellent addition to existing equity or bond portfolios as it holds very little correlation to either.This strategy is an update to the original GLD-USD strategy that uses inverse leveraged ETFs which are not permitted in some retirement accounts.

Strategy: Global Market Rotation Strategy: The Global Market Rotation Strategy is one of our core investment strategies. The strategy invests on a monthly basis in one of five broad global markets. It hedges the global equity exposure with variable allocation to the HEDGE sub-strategy.

Strategy: The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Aggressive version: This is the aggressive version of the Global Sector Rotation Strategy and is used as a sub-strategy. It picks on a monthly basis the top two performing global sectors.

Strategy: Global Sector Rotation Strategy: The Global Sector Rotation Strategy (OTC:GSRS) provides a good diversification to our other strategies. The strategy invests in the top two performing global sectors. Global sector ETFs often display well-defined, long lasting, up or down trends which makes them a good fit rotation strategies. Another advantage of sector rotation strategies is that even in sideways markets, there are often still individual sectors that are performing well.This strategy consists of three sub-strategies: GSRS aggressive , GSRS low-volatility and the HEDGE sub-strategies.

Strategy: The Global Sector Rotation Strategy Low Volatility version: This is the low volatility version of the Global Sector Rotation Strategy and is used as a sub-strategy. It picks on a monthly basis the top two performing global sectors.

Strategy: Hedge Strategy: This sub-strategy looks at two components and chooses the most appropriate one: A Treasury and a GLD-USD sub-strategy. The addition of gold provides an option for prolonged inflationary environments that could place bonds in a multi-year bear market.The equity/bond (or in our case HEDGE) pair is interesting because most of the time these two asset classes profit from an inverse correlation. If there is a real stock market correction, money typically flows towards treasuries and gold rewarding holders and providing crash protection.

Strategy: Maximum Yield Strategy: The Maximum Yield Rotation Strategy is a high-performing, high-risk investment strategy that rebalances twice a month. It trades one of the most profitable asset classes, volatility, by rebalancing a portfolio between two ETFs: ZIV (VelocityShares Inverse VIX Medium-Term ETF) and TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Treasury 3X ETF).When you trade inverse volatility, which means going short VIX, you play the role of an insurer who sells worried investors an insurance policy to protect them from falling stock markets. Investing in inverse volatility means nothing more than taking over the risk and collecting this insurance premium from worried investors. This obviously needs to be done carefully by following a rules-based strategy.This strategy is a good way to profit from VIX contango while minimizing heavy losses during volatility spikes. Since treasury bonds and inverse volatility have shown significant negative correlation to each other, the strategy reduces losses during financial crisis by switching early into treasuries. It is still a risky strategy and large drawdown are to be expected, so we recommend allocating no more than 15% of your overall portfolio.For more information on trading “short volatility”, read our original whitepaper on the topic.

Portfolio: Max Sharpe Portfolio: This portfolio has been optimized to provide the highest Sharpe Ratio, which is a metric that compares the amount of return versus the amount of risk, based on historical data. Return is based on CAGR and risk is based on volatility. The portfolio is well suited for risk adverse investors with moderate growth expectations.Please note that this portfolio might use leveraged ETF and single stocks. Should these not be allowed in your retirement account please see our 401k and IRS compatible Conservative, Moderate, and Aggressive Risk Portfolios. Contact us for special requirements.

Portfolio: Minimum Volatility Portfolio: This portfolio has been optimized for achieving the lowest possible historical volatility over the analyzed period with the involved assets. As such, it exhibits the least risk of all our portfolios, and is therefore suited especially for very risk adverse investors with conservative growth expectations.Please note that this portfolio might use leveraged ETF and single stocks. Should these not be allowed in your retirement account please see our 401k and IRS compatible Conservative, Moderate, and Aggressive Risk Portfolios. Contact us for special requirements.

Portfolio: Moderate Risk Portfolio: Recommended for: Capital accumulation, savers and investors 10–20 years from retirement. The Moderate Risk Portfolio is appropriate for an investor with a medium risk tolerance and a time horizon longer than five years. Moderate investors are willing to accept periods of moderate market volatility in exchange for the possibility of receiving returns that outpace inflation by a significant margin.Tobe compatible with most retirement plans, this Portfolio does not include our Maximum Yield Strategy and leveraged Universal Investment Strategy. If you are using a more flexible account you can choose from our unconstrained portfolios in the Portfolio Library.We also offer a version for 401k plans which do not allow individual stocks.

Strategy: NASDAQ 100 Strategy: The Nasdaq 100 Strategy is a good way to ride the extraordinary momentum of the Nasdaq 100 Index while keeping some protection from market downturns. It is also a great alternative for stock-pickers looking for a rules-based stock selection strategy.The strategy uses a risk-adjusted momentum algorithm to choose the top four Nasdaq 100 stocks with a variable allocation to treasuries or gold to smooth the equity curve and provide crash protection in bear markets. The strategy combines well with our more conservative strategies, such as the Bond Rotation Strategy or BUG, or with one of our non-U.S. equity strategies such as World Top 4, to form a well balanced portfolio.The existence of price momentum has been heavily studied and well documented over the years. It reveals itself in assets that have strong absolute performance or performance relative to their peers. Logical Invest has exploited asset class and sector momentum in many of our strategies for years. We have found individual stock momentum tends to be an even stronger force, particularly in the top NASDAQ stocks. When properly identified, it can be capitalized on to provide an investment edge.During bull markets, and especially “risk off” periods, the strongest NASDAQ stocks typically beat the market handily. However, they can also get ahead of themselves which makes them more vulnerable during “risk on” periods. To manage those challenges, the strategy incorporates several advanced methodologies:Mean Reversion — Momentum is based on the principle of buying high and selling higher, however, as most investors have experienced, stocks that rise too quickly can also have short-term corrections. The strategy uses a mean reversion component to penalize stocks that rise too much or too fast.Protection — The strategy allocates a portion to treasuries to balance out the supercharged Nasdaq momentum stocks. This improves risk adjusted returns and moderates strategy drawdowns. The model also allocates more to treasuries if the overall Nasdaq 100 index exhibits momentum weakness.Intelligent Ranking — Our algorithms ensures we get the right blend of stocks that work well together and have an allocation to each individual stock that reflects its volatility in relation to other stocks.

Strategy: NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Strategy: The NASDAQ 100 is a sub-strategy.

Strategy: Enhanced Permanent Portfolio Strategy: The classic permanent portfolio was created by Harry Browne. The idea was that a portfolio should be diversified enough to get you through a wide variety of economic and market environments and simple enough that even a child could do it. Originally it consisted of the following allocations:25% in U.S. stocks25% in long-term bonds25% in gold25% in cashThe Logical Invest permanent portfolio is somewhat more sophisticated, rebalances monthly and is not always split evenly across the three main assets. It can adapt to market conditions by putting more weight on gold or treasuries and less on equity depending on market conditions.

Strategy: Leveraged Universal Investment Strategy: The 3X Universal Investment Strategy (UISx3) is a leveraged version of our core Universal Investment Strategy (UIS), an evolved, intelligent version of the classic 60/40 equity/bond portfolio that can adapt to current conditions, shifting portfolio weight away from stocks in difficult markets and adding weight to equity in bull runs.The 3x leveraged version of the strategy employs SPXL, TMF and UGLD, which are the leveraged versions of the S&P 500 ETF, the Treasury 20+ year ETF and the Gold ETF. Unlike the base UIS, the leveraged version only uses TMF and UGLD to hedge SPXL exposure.The UISx3 is appropriate for investors who are comfortable taking on higher risks in exchange for the potential for of higher returns. Because leveraged ETFs are used, we recommend allocating no more than 15% of your total portfolio to this strategy.

Strategy: Universal Investment Strategy: Mitigate market drawdowns and preserve capital when markets correct: The Universal Investment Strategy (UIS) is one of our core investment strategies. It is an evolved, intelligent version of the classic 60/40 equity/bond portfolio. Much like the classic portfolio, UIS holds both the S&P 500 index and bonds. However, UIS can intelligently adapt to current conditions by shifting weight away from stocks in difficult markets and adding weight in bullish markets.Instead of using simple bond ETF, UIS uses a sub-strategy, called HEDGE, which can choose between different types of safe-heaven ETFs.The equity/bond (or in our case equity/HEDGE) pair is interesting because most of the time these two asset classes profit from an inverse correlation. If there is a real stock market correction, usually ETFs included in the HEDGE strategy (Treasuries, Gold, etc) are the ‘safe’ assets where money flows to, providing crash protection.

Strategy: US sectors long worst US sectors: Investment Portfolio: A sub-strategy for the U.S. Sector strategy. It goes long the worst performing U.S. sectors assuming they may rebound.

Strategy: US Sector Rotation Strategy: The U.S. Sector strategy allocates dynamically between four long U.S. sector sub-strategies and one short U.S. sector strategy. Each of the four long sub-strategies use different momentum and mean reversion criteria. The short U.S. sector sub-strategy is used as a hedge to limit losses in case of a large market correction.Due to the low correlation of these strategies, the combination creates a strategy with a considerably higher Sharpe Ratio than a simple sector rotation. The addition of the negatively correlated short strategy significantly reduces volatility and drawdowns during difficult market periods.What makes this strategy interesting is that it does not rely on either treasuries or bonds to hedge in times of market stress, it uses the short US sector strategy instead. The hedging mechanism is purely “short equity” and unrelated to whether interest rates rise, a common concern when holding bonds in a portfolio.The strategy uses SPDR sector ETFs, but you can replace these with the corresponding sector ETFs or futures from other issuers.US sectors have historically been good for trend following systems because each sector usually over or under performs for long periods at a time due to longer lasting economic cycles and not just short-term market fluctuations.The economy itself is not a linear stable system, but swings between periods of expansion (growth) and contraction (recession). This results in a series of market cycles which are visualized in the following picture.Source: http://www.nowandfutures.com(Global Business Cycles)Each market cycle favors different industry sectors. The goal of a good working strategy is to choose the best performing sectors while avoiding or even shorting the worst performing sectors.You can read the original strategy whitepaper for more details.

Portfolio: Volatility less than 10%: This portfolio has been optimized for achieving the highest possible return while limiting the historical volatility to 10% or less over the analyzed period with the involved assets. As a reference, the volatility limit of 10% is about two thirds of the volatility, or risk, of the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY).As such it is a conservative Portfolio suited for risk adverse investors with moderate growth expectations.Please note that this portfolio might use leveraged ETF and single stocks. Should these not be allowed in your retirement account please see our 401k and IRS compatible Conservative, Moderate, and Aggressive Risk Portfolios. Contact us for special requirements.

Portfolio: Volatility less than 15%: Mitigate market drawdowns and preserve capital when markets correct: This portfolio has been optimized for achieving the highest possible return while limiting the historical volatility to 15% or less over the analyzed period. As a reference, the volatility limit of 15% is slightly below the historical volatility, or risk, of the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY). This is an aggressive portfolio suited for investors with a relatively high risk tolerance and aggressive growth expectations.Please note that this portfolio might use leveraged ETF and single stocks. Should these not be allowed in your retirement account please see our 401k and IRS compatible Conservative, Moderate, and Aggressive Risk Portfolios. Contact us for special requirements.

Portfolio: Volatility less than 7%: Mitigate market drawdowns and preserve capital when markets correct: This portfolio has been optimized for achieving the highest possible return while limiting the historical volatility to 7% or less over the analyzed period with the involved assets. The volatility limit of 7% equals about half the volatility, or risk, of the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF — TLT.As such it is a very conservative Portfolio suited for very risk adverse investors with conservative growth expectations.Please note that this portfolio might use leveraged ETF and single stocks. Should these not be allowed in your retirement account please see our 401k and IRS compatible Conservative, Moderate, and Aggressive Risk Portfolios. Contact us for special requirements.

Strategy: World Top 4 Strategy: The World Country Top 4 Strategy is a momentum driven strategy that invests in the top four single country ETFs. It will add geographic diversity to your portfolio with significant non-U.S. equity exposure.The strategy consists of four sub-strategies. Each sub-strategy invests in the best country ETF in a specific geographic area (i.e., Africa, Asia, Latin America, etc). These strategies are then combined to yield four country ETFs that come from different geographic segments, thus avoiding overconcentration. So even if one region is outperforming all the other areas, this strategy will still diversify among three additional top performing regions.Like our other equity-based strategies, this strategy is hedged with a sub-strategy (HEDGE) that includes, amongst others, safe heaven assets like treasuries and gold.

Portfolio: Aggressive Risk Portfolio: Recommended for: Capital growth, speculation and young investors.The Aggressive Risk Portfolio is appropriate for an investor with a high risk tolerance and a time horizon longer than 10 years. Aggressive investors should be willing to accept periods of extreme ups and downs in exchange for the possibility of receiving higher relative returns over the long term. A longer time horizon is needed to allow time for investments to recover in the event of a sharp downturn. This portfolio is heavily weighted with stocks which are historically more volatile than bonds.Tobe compatible with most retirement plans, this Portfolio does not include our Maximum Yield Strategy and leveraged Universal Investment Strategy. If you are using a more flexible account you can choose from our unconstrained portfolios in the Portfolio Library.We also offer a version for 401k plans which do not allow individual stocks.

Strategy: NASDAQ 100 Balanced unhedged: The NASDAQ 100 is a sub- strategy that uses proprietary risk-adjusted momentum to pick the most appropriate 4 NASDAQ 100 stocks. It is part for the Nasdaq 100 hedged strategy where it is combined with a variable hedge.

Strategy: NASDAQ 100 Leaders Strategy: The NASDAQ 100 leaders is a sub- strategy that uses proprietary risk-adjusted momentum to pick the most appropriate 4 NASDAQ 100 stocks. It is part for the Nasdaq 100 hedged strategy where it is combined with a variable hedge. $GLD #savings #money

Strategy: Short Term Bond Strategy: The Short Term Bond Strategy is essentially a place to park cash that earns interest. When combined with other higher risk strategies it creates a lower risk portfolio and generally improves the portfolio’s Sharpe ratio. If your broker pays interest on cash balances that is comparable to the current yield of this strategy, you can choose to keep this allocation in cash instead.

Strategy: Dow 30 Strategy: We developed the Dow 30 Top 4 Strategy some years ago together with the Nasdaq 100 strategy. We waited to published it because the Nasdaq 100 Top 4 Strategy was outperforming the Dow Strategy in the technology driven bull market we’ve had in recent years. Going forward however, the Dow 30 Top 4 Strategy could be very beneficial, as stock picking becomes much more important in volatile, sideways moving markets.The performance of the Dow 30 strategy is quite similar to the simpler US Market Strategy, however in volatile markets like this year, the stock picking Dow 30 outperformed. Notably, the February drawdown was only half of the US Market Strategy as the Dow Strategy excludes high volatility stocks.

Strategy: US Market Strategy: The U.S. Market Strategy was designed as an alternative to our Universal Investment Strategy which allocates between SPY (S&P 500 ETF) and TLT (U.S. Treasuries ETF). The equity component of this new strategy switches between SPY (S&P500), QQQ (Nasdaq 100), DIA (Dow 30) and SPLV (S&P 500 low volatility) so it can take advantage of different market conditions. The addition of SPLV provides a good defensive option in times of high market volatility. In addition to U.S. equities, the strategy utilizes a hedge strategy that switches between TLT, TIP, UUP and GLD.The strategy’s backtests performed substantially better than a simple SPY-TLT investment. All of the component ETFs are very liquid with small spreads making them easy to trade with negligible costs.

Portfolio: Moderate Risk Portfolio for 401: Recommended for: Capital accumulation, savers and investors 10–20 years from retirement. The Moderate Risk Portfolio is appropriate for an investor with a medium risk tolerance and a time horizon longer than five years. Moderate investors are willing to accept periods of moderate market volatility in exchange for the possibility of receiving returns that outpace inflation by a significant margin.Tobe compatible with most retirement plans, this Portfolio does not include our Maximum Yield Strategy and leveraged Universal Investment Strategy. If you are using a more flexible account you can choose from our unconstrained portfolios in the Portfolio Library.We also offer a version for plans which do allow single stocks.

Strategy: Leveraged Gold-Currency Strategy: The Leveraged Gold-Currency Strategy takes advantage of the historically negative correlation between gold and the U.S. dollar. It switches between the two assets based on their recent risk adjusted performance enabling the strategy to provide protection against severe gold corrections due to dollar strength. It is an excellent addition to existing equity or bond portfolios as it holds very little correlation to either.This version of the strategy uses inverse leveraged ETFs to generate higher returns, but some retirement accounts are restricted from trading these ETFs. GLD-UUP provides an alternate form of the strategy without leveraged ETFs which also lowers the overall return and volatility.

Portfolio: Aronson Family Taxable Portfolio: Ted Aronson is an asset manager. His family taxable account portfolio has been featured and tracked by MarketWatch.com’s lazy portfolios, maintained by Paul Farrel. The lazy portfolio has done very well prior to 2008–2009 crash.

Portfolio: Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold: Paul Merriman’s Fundadvice Ultimate Buy & Hold. Another Lazy Portfolio that is tracked by MarketWatch.Merriman describes it: The “ultimate” portfolio starts with the S&P 500 index SPX then adds small and equal portions of nine other very carefully selected U.S. and international asset classes, each one being an excellent long-term vehicle for diversifying. When it’s properly done, the result is a low-cost portfolio with massive diversification that will take advantage of market opportunities wherever they are, and at about the same risk as that of the SP 500.”

Portfolio: Coffeehouse Portfolio: The Coffeehouse Portfolio was popularized by financial advisor Bill Schultheis in the best-selling book The Coffeehouse Investor. It is part of what we could call “Lazy Portfolios”.The Coffeehouse Portfolio consists of 7 funds. It starts with a 60/40 stock bond allocation. The 60% in stocks is allocated to a large-cap fund, a large-cap value fund, a small-cap fund, a small-cap value fund, an international fund, and a REIT fund.

Portfolio: Margaritaville Portfolio: The Margaritaville portfolio was proposed by Scott Burns, a popular Dallas Morning News financial columnist. It consists of one part total stock index, one part international stock index, and one part inflation-protected Treasury securities

Portfolio: Dr. Bernstein’s No Brainer Portfolio: Dr. William Bernstein is a physician and neurologist as well as a financial adviser to high net worth individuals. This one’s so simple: Allocate 25% in each of four index funds diversified across basic categories.

Portfolio: Dr. Bernstein’s Smart Money Portfolio: Dr. William Bernstein is a physician and neurologist as well as a financial adviser to high net worth individuals.

Portfolio: Second Grader’s Starter: The Second Grader’s Starter Portfolio is a Lazy Portfolio proposed by Paul Farrell. It was meant as a portfolio solution to a very small investor, with a long investment horizon. Farrell gives an example of 8-year old Kevin who got a $10,000 gift form his gramdmother. With a time horizon of 30+ years, the portfolio uses no load, low-cost index funds. It splits the money into 60% Total Stock Market Index, 30% Total International Stock and 10% Total Bond Market Index.

Portfolio: Yale U’s Unconventional Portfolio: David Swensen is manager of Yale University’s endowment fund. He has addressed how investors should set up and manage their investments in his book, Unconventional Success: A Fundamental Approach to Personal Investment.The Swensen portfolio consists of six core asset class allocations:US equity: 30%Foreign developed equity: 15%Emerging market equity: 5%US REITS: 20%US Treasury bonds: 15%US TIPS: 15%

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