Private Investor
Contributor's Links: Idiosyncratic Whisk

My name is Kevin Erdmann.  I write a blog that broadly covers the topics of economics, finance and speculation.  I have an MS in Finance from the University of Arizona.  I am currently writing and supporting books about the housing bubble and the financial crisis which are being ... more


Long Term Yields As A Call Option
Treasury markets seem a bit unable to perform price discovery this week, and I assert that that is evidence in favor of my hypothesis. If the Fed can get Treasury markets to calm down, long rates might decline.
February 2020 Yield Curve Update
This month appears to have presented the triggering event that will tip the Fed's hawkish bias over the tipping point.
January 2020 Yield Curve Update
Interest rates have declined back toward the August lows (though they have bounced back up a bit over the past couple of days). Generally, this month has continued the trend that suggests the Fed will be a bit behind the curve.
When Will Interest Rates Bottom?
Since the short end of the yield curve inverted in late 2018, one way we could think about the Fed's posture is to infer from Eurodollar futures markets what the expected last rate cut will be.
New Homes Vs. Existing Homes
When the federal government made it effectively illegal to originate mortgages to many families after the financial crisis, the effect of that development was clear in the prices of homes.
Recent Shifts In Housing May Be Related To GSE Activity
There has been a bit of a mystery recently in housing markets.




Latest Posts
Great Review Of Shut Out In The Economic Record
Declan Trott, an economist with Australia's Department of the Treasury, has written a review of Shut Out for Economic Record, a journal of the Economic Society of Australia. It offers a concise and well-written overview of the book's thesis.

Work Experience

Consultation Services
March 2018 - Present (2 years 2 months)

Sharing the insights of my groundbreaking new research on the causes and consequences of the housing bubble and the financial crisis.

I can provide short presentations for real estate and investment groups.

I can also provide extensive, detailed reports about the factors that are influencing the housing market and financial markets, in general. 

Independent Investor
2001 - Present (19 years 7 months)


University of Arizona - Eller College of Management
MMF, Finance
2010 / 2011
Finance, Fixed Income track, Masters of Management in Finance
University of Oklahoma
1989 / 1993
Business Management


Shut Out: How a Housing Shortage Caused the Great Recession and Crippled Our Economy
Kevin Erdmann
Rowman & Littlefield

A shortage of urban housing has become an international challenge.  The problem intensified in the United States until in 2004 and 2005 it erupted into a sort of refugee crisis.  Hundreds of thousands of families had to move away from prosperous cities, creating a housing bubble in less expensive alternative cities.  Mistaking the symptoms for the disease, policymakers clamped down on lending and homebuilding. Those policy reactions led to the financial crisis and subsequent stagnation.

Idiosyncratic Whisk
Kevin Erdmann
Kevin Erdmann

Pulling yolks from the scramble:
Analysis of economics, finance, investment, and speculation.