Kevin Erdmann Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Private Investor
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My name is Kevin Erdmann.  I write a blog that broadly covers the topics of economics, finance and speculation.  I have an MS in Finance from the University of Arizona.  I am currently writing and supporting books about the housing bubble and the financial crisis which are being ... more

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Real Phillips Curve Update
Here are a couple of charts comparing real wage growth and unemployment.
February 2019 CPI
flation took a step down this month. This takes us a step further to a situation where consumption may be waning, but the Fed thinks inflation is near their target because of high imputed rent inflation.
Equity Values And Business Cycles
Stable NGDP growth leads to slightly lower profit growth, but higher wage growth and higher real total growth.
December 2018 CPI Inflation
Maybe there is some chance that the natural rate can chug its way back above the target rate again and the slow recovery can continue.
November 2018 CPI
Things continue to move sideways, not providing a strong new signal in either direction.
Housing: The Problem In A Picture
Here is the problem. There are two housing markets in the US. A closed one and an open one.
October 2018 CPI
Shelter inflation had another moderate month, bringing the trailing 12-month shelter inflation rate down a little.
Housing: Construction Hiring
It has been suggested that a crackdown on immigration in 2006 was a causal factor in the housing bust and recession. While not implausible, I believe the impact was minimal. Here are the arguments for both sides...
Housing: Bank Capital And The Crisis
John Cochrane has an interesting post up today about the role of bank capital in the financial crisis, referencing some recent work from Laurence Kotlikoff. I basically agree and will add my two-cents...
1 to 9 of 9 Posts