Kevin Erdmann Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
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My name is Kevin Erdmann.  I write a blog that broadly covers the topics of economics, finance and speculation.  I have an MS in Finance from the University of Arizona.  I am currently writing and supporting books about the housing bubble and the financial crisis which are being ... more

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The Curious Sine Curve Of Equity Returns
The positive performance of the stock market over the last few years is actually right in line with the long-term trends.
More On Interest Rates And Home Prices
The relationship between rent levels and yields moves up and down through hot and cold markets.
Interest Rates And Home Prices
 A couple of quick thoughts on recent home price appreciation.
December 2020 Yield Curve
The yield curve looks pretty good. Long-term rates still are recovering. 
October 2020 Yield Curve Update
The yield curve has taken a strong bullish move as a result of the election and the Covid-19 vaccine progress. The long end of the Eurodollar curve is nearly back to the pre-Covid level.
October 2020 Inflation Update
Much of the drop in the stated core CPI number is coming from declining rent inflation (or shelter inflation). Core inflation excluding shelter is still below 2%, so the Fed has room to goose spending within their mandate. 
September 2020 Yield Curve Update
The yield curve continues to slowly show optimism. The long end of the curve continues to climb. It's now back up above the yields of early April. 
August 2020 Yield Curve
Inflation breakevens continue to rise, slowly.
Housing Policy, Monetary Policy, And The Great Recession
Policymakers should not slow the economy in an attempt to prevent bubbles, which are not easy to identify in real time.
Trends In Housing Supply
Since 2004, in fact, the rate of a multi-unit building in the Closed Access cities has matched the national average. In the end, regulatory obstacles create higher prices.
A Miracle Homeownership Boom
According to the Census Bureau, homeownership shot up by 2.6% just this quarter! Normally, that amount of change would take a decade or more.
June 2020 Yield Curve Update
The yield curve remains at about the same place it was a month ago.
May 2020 Yield Curve Update
The yield curve (using Eurodollar futures) has undergone a series of shifts with the coronavirus pandemic.
April 2020 Yield Curve Update
The Treasuries chart suggests that the yield curve is functionally inverted. Forward 5 year inflation expectations are below 1%.
March 2020 Yield Curve Update
Coronavirus has given us one big push into the recessionary outcome that we have been tentatively dancing around for some time.
Long Term Yields As A Call Option
Treasury markets seem a bit unable to perform price discovery this week, and I assert that that is evidence in favor of my hypothesis. If the Fed can get Treasury markets to calm down, long rates might decline.
1 to 16 of 46 Posts
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