Kevin Erdmann Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
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My name is Kevin Erdmann.  I write a blog that broadly covers the topics of economics, finance and speculation.  I have an MS in Finance from the University of Arizona.  I am currently writing and supporting books about the housing bubble and the financial crisis which are being ... more

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Recent Shifts In Housing May Be Related To GSE Activity
There has been a bit of a mystery recently in housing markets.
December 2019 CPI Update
Not much to say. More of the same. Shelter inflation tracking over 3%, non-shelter core around 1.5%, and core CPI about 2.2%.
December 2019 Yield Curve Update
The yield curve continues to press upward from the mid-year lows.
November 2019 CPI Inflation
Inflation remains in a holding pattern - about 2.3% core inflation, which consists of 3.3% shelter inflation and 1.6% non-shelter core inflation.
Quarterly Report On Household Debt And Credit (2019 Q3)
The average FICO score of borrowers started moving up in the second quarter of 2007, just before home prices started to collapse.
A Postscript On The Review Of The Crisis
I suspect some skeptical readers might find my summary lacking because it may seem as if I am writing off what was clearly a boom in residential investment and home building.It may be worth a clarification.
A Review Of The Crisis Narrative
A commenter has asked me for a comprehensive review of the standard narrative and my objections to it.
October 2019 Yield Curve Update
The yield curve still seems to be following the bearish timeline.
September 2019 CPI Inflation And Yield Curve Updates
Cash is required to bid bond prices higher. But, the oddity with this cycle is that real estate borrowing has been repressed during the expansion.
August 2019 Yield Curve Update
The Fed seems to be tepid about their recent dovish turn. It would take quite an aggressive posture for them to get ahead of this.
July 2019 CPI Inflation
Core inflation has recovered a bit in the last two months, but we remain in the context of relatively low non-shelter inflation and high shelter inflation, averaging out to roughly on-target total core inflation.
Housing: Homes And Population Growth
Housing units per adult has actually started to level off. This is interesting because total permits and total starts are still below past averages.
June 2019 CPI Inflation
This month there was a bit of a bump in non-shelter inflation, but the trailing 12-month rate remains about 1.1% and shelter inflation remains about 3.4%.
June 2019 Yield Curve Update
Rates have continued to dip. Forward markets have already moved much of the way back toward zero. This has been somewhat surprising to me.
May 2019 CPI Inflation
Core CPI continues to ride along with the 2% target range, bifurcated between shelter and non-shelter prices.
April 2019 CPI Inflation
We appear to be seeing a rebound in shelter inflation and a decline in non-shelter inflation. The inverted yield curve, stabilizing home prices, declining residential investment, and a peak in existing and new home sales suggest parallels to 2006.
1 to 16 of 26 Posts
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