James Picerno Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Editor at The ETF Asset Class Performance Review
Contributor's Links: The Capital Spectator

James Picerno is a veteran financial journalist and has been writing about portfolio strategies, investment products, and macroeconomics since the early 1990s at Bloomberg, Dow Jones and other media groups before becoming an independent writer/analyst/consultant in 2008. He’s currently ... more

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Macro Briefing: Monday, Aug. 2
Here is a brief glimpse at the various macro events taking place throughout the day.
Major Asset Classes - July 2021 - Performance Review
Most of the major asset classes continued to rise in July, led by US real estate investment trusts (REITs). Only stocks in emerging markets lost ground last month.
Book Bits: Eight New Books To Get August Started
Global trade, monetary policy, crypto wars, asset allocation, and how to be a quant - light reading to start the month off right.
The ETF Portfolio Strategist - Sunday, Aug. 1
The economic headlines swirled last week, but the net result was essentially no change to a slight downside bias for performance with our strategies. As usual, the relatively calm surface activity masked a fair degree of turbulence in some corners.
The ETF Portfolio Strategist - Saturday, July 31
The iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF (IJR) rose 1.7% for the week, posting the strongest gain for our standard global opportunity set. This could be the start of a revival after two months of relatively weak trending, but we’re not on board yet.
Personal Income’s Weak Rebound Clouds US Economic Outlook
Economists are expecting another decline in today’s June report on US personal income.
Political Risk Continues To Weigh On China Stocks
The rout in China equities accelerated in recent weeks amid Beijing’s increasingly aggressive regulatory crackdown on its domestic businesses. On a year-to-date basis a deep shade of red ink prevails for the country’s stock market.
US Q2 GDP Estimate Slips Further, But Still Set For Strong Gain
Tomorrow’s release of second-quarter US economic data from the government is expected to show output grew at a stronger rate over Q1’s robust gain, based on a set of nowcasts.
Introducing The US Macro Trend Index
Goldman Sachs cut its forecast for US economic growth in this year’s second half, citing slower activity in the services sector and the potential headwind from the spread of the COVID-19 Delta variant.
US Stocks Rebounded Last Week As Emerging Markets Tumbled
American shares recovered with a strong gain for the trading week through Friday, July 23, posting the highest increase for the major asset classes, based on a set of exchange traded funds.
The ETF Portfolio Strategist - Sunday, July 25
Our trio of proprietary strategies continued to trail their common benchmark last week (through Friday, July 23). The gap ranged from slight to substantial.
Book Bits: Unknown Knowns
Reviewing five new books about climate, capitalism, investing, folly, Asia and startups.
The ETF Portfolio Strategist - Saturday, July 24
Once again it looked like American shares had met their match, but the selloff turned out to be one more brief correction before buyers stepped in and drove prices higher. By the end of Friday’s trading, US equities rose to yet another record high.
Modeling US Stock Market Expected Returns, Part II
Factoring in a 10-year Treasury rate that’s modestly negative in real terms implies a higher equity return vs. the standard CAPE metric, which focuses only on equity market valuation.
Are Markets Done With Inflation Worries?
In case you took a day off yesterday, there’s a new narrative circulating that inflation anxiety is history and worries about slowing economic growth have moved to the fore.
TIPS And Commodities Led Returns For Asset Classes Last Week
Inflation-indexed Treasuries and commodities were the top performers last week for the major asset classes, based on set of exchange traded funds.
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