James Picerno | TalkMarkets | Page 1
Editor at The ETF Asset Class Performance Review
Contributor's Links: The Capital Spectator
James Picerno is a veteran financial journalist and has been writing about portfolio strategies, investment products, and macroeconomics since the early 1990s at Bloomberg, Dow Jones and other media groups before becoming an independent writer/analyst/consultant in 2008. He’s currently ...more

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Rate-Cut Forecast Now Seen For September At Earliest
The only aspect of consistency in the market’s outlook for rate cuts lately has been pushing the expected date forward. Recent history falls in line with this trend and September is now seen as the earliest date for policy easing.
Higher-For-Longer Risk For Rates Drives Up Treasury Yields
Bowing to recent data, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday conceded that inflation progress has stalled and the case for rate cuts has weakened.
Where’s The Downside Tipping Point For U.S. Stocks?
The S&P’s 20-day average is still comfortably above its 50- and 100-day counterparts.
Rate Cuts Off The Table For Near Term Outlook: Futures Market
In the wake of last week’s hotter-than-expected consumer inflation data for March, the implied forecast via Fed funds futures indicates that interest-rate cuts are unlikely in the months ahead.
10-Year US Treasury Yield ‘Fair Value’ Estimate - Thursday, April 11
Yesterday’s hotter-than-expected consumer inflation report suggests that a hefty market premium will endure, and perhaps rise further, in the near term.
Momentum Remains Top Equities Factor Performer In 2024
As for small-cap stocks, the frustration and regret rolls on. A number of analysts in recent years have flagged this slice of the market as poised to rally, but false dawns continue to endure.
Risk-On Sentiment Persists, Defying Gravity — And Logic?
The list of things that could derail risk-on sentiment is long and varied, but at the moment the crowd has shown little enthusiasm for abandoning winning trades.
Will Sticky Inflation Kill Prospects For Rate Cuts In 2024?
The consensus outlook is still projecting that the Federal Reserve will trim its target interest rate by the end of the year.
U.S. Q1 GDP Nowcast Highlights Growth Slowdown Persisting
U.S. economic output is still on a path for a materially softer pace of growth in the first-quarter GDP report scheduled for release at the end of this month.
Commodities Continue To Lead Major Asset Classes In 2024
A number of broad-brush commodity funds are rebounding in 2024 after a down year for the asset class in 2023.
New Questions Emerge On Prospects For A June Rate Cut
Forecasts that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in June took another hit after Monday’s relatively firm manufacturing survey data for March.
Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes
The long-run performance estimate for the Global Market Index ticked up again in March.
Major Asset Classes Performance Review - March 2024
The rally in global assets broadened in March, lifting nearly every slice of the major asset classes. The downside outlier: bonds in emerging markets. Otherwise, last month delivered a clean sweep of gains, based on a set of ETFs.
Floating-Rate And Junk Bonds Lead Fixed Income So Far In 2024
The bond market has struggled to fully recover from the Federal Reserve’s aggressive run of interest-rate hikes in 2022-2023, but pockets of strength remain conspicuous.
Negative Equity Risk Premium Estimates Persist For US Equities
The roaring US stock market has delivered red-hot gains in recent history but at the expense of future returns.
Hope Springs Eternal, Again, For Small-Cap Equities
The stock market is soaring and the rising tide has lifted small-cap shares, but if you’ve been expecting a hefty premium in smaller firms, well, there’s still plenty of disappointment to process.
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