Guy Lerner Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Managing Partner at ARL Advisers, LLC
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Guy M. Lerner, MD has been writing about the markets for over 10 years providing readers with independent and original market analysis.  Lerner is the principal partner in ARL Advisers, LLC, a registered investment advisory in ... more

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4 Asset Model Portfolio
We have a sell signal in our fundamental bond model, yet the technicals in this asset class remain constructive. Thus we are NEUTRAL on bonds. We liquidated our position in BND at Monday’s open, and this position gained 1.45% since early January.
Weekly Sentiment Report: Extreme Bullishness
As stated last week, investors continue to believe in a “sure thing”. That is, investors believe that this market has only one direction and it is up. This week, that belief in a “sure thing” is a whole lot stronger.
4 Asset Model Portfolio
Presently, the markets are all about equities, and unfortunately, our portfolio has shunned equities for the better part of the year.
Weekly Sentiment Report: A Sure Thing
Investors are beginning to believe that this market is “a sure thing”. My dislike for betting on the “sure thing” isn’t so much that I have a belief that all “sure things” must fail, but rather why even play when the pay off on the “sure bet” is so small.
Weekly Sentiment Report: SP500 Notches New Highs
7 weeks ago, our “dumb money” indicator dipped its toe into the extreme pessimism range after the markets (i.e., SP500) sold off only modestly (<5%). Since that single week extreme reading which was not a buy signal by our measures, the SP500 is up nearly 3%.
Equity Chart Book: 5.27.14
The SPY is safely above well delineated support levels. IWM and QQQ are lagging, but QQQ has woken up this past week. I guess this is the message of this mixed market — speculative issues aren’t in vogue.
Dogs Of The Dow: 5.27.14
The Dogs of the Dow is a stock picking strategy devoted to selecting the highest dividend paying stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Yield is the annual dividend from a company divided by its stock price
Target Equity Allocation: 5.26.14
With our fundamental equity market model on a sell signal, our target equity allocation remains at 50%.
Weekly Sentiment Report: $VIX Closes At 52 Week Low
The $VIX closed at a 52 week low this week, and complacency reigns!
4 Asset Model Portfolio: 5.26.14
For the week, our positions in gold and Treasury bonds were flat like a pancake.
The Gold Strategy: 5.20.14
Our models are constructed with both fundamental and technical data, and a bull signal is registered when both fundamentals and technicals are positive.
Dogs Of The Dow: 5.19.14
The Dogs of the Dow is a stock picking strategy devoted to selecting the highest dividend paying stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Yield is the annual dividend from a company divided by its stock price.
Equity Chart Book: 5.19.14
The SPY is safely above well delineated support levels. IWM and QQQ are lagging.
Weekly Sentiment Report: Biding Time
Looking at the data in aggregate, we note that the “Dumb Money” indicator dipped into bearish sentiment territory only 5 weeks. This was not a bull signal by our reckoning as the depth and duration of bearishness was not significant enough.
Dogs Of The Dow: 5.12.14
The Dogs of the Dow is a stock picking strategy devoted to selecting the highest dividend paying stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Yield is the annual dividend from a company divided by its stock price.
Weekly Sentiment Report
Our fundamental equity model, which utilizes investor sentiment, turned bearish in early February. Our technical model remains constructive. Bearish fundamentals plus bullish technicals equals NEUTRAL market environment, which should be ruled by overbought/ oversold market conditions.
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