Guy Lerner

Managing Partner at ARL Advisers, LLC

Guy M. Lerner, MD has been writing about the markets for over 10 years providing readers with independent and original market analysis.  Lerner is the principal partner in ARL Advisers, LLC, a registered investment advisory in the State of Kentucky. ARL Advisers, LLC offers a tactical ... more

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4 Asset Model Portfolio
Tuesday, June 24, 2014 7:12 AM EDT
We have a sell signal in our fundamental bond model, yet the technicals in this asset class remain constructive. Thus we are NEUTRAL on bonds. We liquidated our position in BND at Monday’s open, and this position gained 1.45% since early January.
In this article: GLD, SPY
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Weekly Sentiment Report: Extreme Bullishness
Monday, June 16, 2014 4:43 AM EDT
As stated last week, investors continue to believe in a “sure thing”. That is, investors believe that this market has only one direction and it is up. This week, that belief in a “sure thing” is a whole lot stronger.
In this article: VIX
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4 Asset Model Portfolio
Wednesday, June 11, 2014 11:19 AM EDT
Presently, the markets are all about equities, and unfortunately, our portfolio has shunned equities for the better part of the year.
In this article: GLD
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Weekly Sentiment Report: A Sure Thing
Sunday, June 8, 2014 3:36 PM EDT
Investors are beginning to believe that this market is “a sure thing”. My dislike for betting on the “sure thing” isn’t so much that I have a belief that all “sure things” must fail, but rather why even play when the pay off on the “sure bet” is so small.
In this article: SPY, VIX
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Weekly Sentiment Report: SP500 Notches New Highs
Monday, June 2, 2014 7:36 AM EDT
7 weeks ago, our “dumb money” indicator dipped its toe into the extreme pessimism range after the markets (i.e., SP500) sold off only modestly (<5%). Since that single week extreme reading which was not a buy signal by our measures, the SP500 is up nearly 3%.
In this article: VIX
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Equity Chart Book: 5.27.14
Tuesday, May 27, 2014 1:46 PM EDT
The SPY is safely above well delineated support levels. IWM and QQQ are lagging, but QQQ has woken up this past week. I guess this is the message of this mixed market — speculative issues aren’t in vogue.
In this article: BND, QQQ, EEM, EFA, EWJ, IWM, SPY, VGK
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STOCKS I FOLLOW

DIA SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average
GLD SPDR Gold Trust ETF
OIL iPath B S&P GSCI Crude Oil TR ETN
QQQ PowerShares QQQ Trust Series 1
SPY SPDR S&P 500

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