Guy Lerner | TalkMarkets | Page 1

Guy Lerner

Managing Partner at ARL Advisers, LLC
Guy M. Lerner, MD has been writing about the markets for over 10 years providing readers with independent and original market analysis. Lerner is the principal partner in ARL Advisers, LLC, a registered investment advisory in the State of Kentucky. ARL Advisers, LLC offers a tactical asset ...more
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4 Asset Model Portfolio
Tuesday, June 24, 2014 7:12 AM EDT
We have a sell signal in our fundamental bond model, yet the technicals in this asset class remain constructive. Thus we are NEUTRAL on bonds. We liquidated our position in BND at Monday’s open, and this position gained 1.45% since early January.
In this article: GLD, SPY
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Weekly Sentiment Report: Extreme Bullishness
Monday, June 16, 2014 4:43 AM EDT
As stated last week, investors continue to believe in a “sure thing”. That is, investors believe that this market has only one direction and it is up. This week, that belief in a “sure thing” is a whole lot stronger.
In this article: VIX
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4 Asset Model Portfolio
Wednesday, June 11, 2014 11:19 AM EDT
Presently, the markets are all about equities, and unfortunately, our portfolio has shunned equities for the better part of the year.
In this article: GLD
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Weekly Sentiment Report: A Sure Thing
Sunday, June 8, 2014 3:36 PM EDT
Investors are beginning to believe that this market is “a sure thing”. My dislike for betting on the “sure thing” isn’t so much that I have a belief that all “sure things” must fail, but rather why even play when the pay off on the “sure bet” is so small.
In this article: SPY, VIX
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Weekly Sentiment Report: SP500 Notches New Highs
Monday, June 2, 2014 7:36 AM EDT
7 weeks ago, our “dumb money” indicator dipped its toe into the extreme pessimism range after the markets (i.e., SP500) sold off only modestly (<5%). Since that single week extreme reading which was not a buy signal by our measures, the SP500 is up nearly 3%.
In this article: VIX
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Equity Chart Book: 5.27.14
Tuesday, May 27, 2014 1:46 PM EDT
The SPY is safely above well delineated support levels. IWM and QQQ are lagging, but QQQ has woken up this past week. I guess this is the message of this mixed market — speculative issues aren’t in vogue.
In this article: BND, QQQ, EEM, EFA, EWJ, IWM, SPY, VGK
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Dogs Of The Dow: 5.27.14
Tuesday, May 27, 2014 11:00 AM EDT
The Dogs of the Dow is a stock picking strategy devoted to selecting the highest dividend paying stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Yield is the annual dividend from a company divided by its stock price
In this article: GE, PFE, T, CSCO, INTC
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Target Equity Allocation: 5.26.14
Monday, May 26, 2014 10:40 AM EDT
With our fundamental equity market model on a sell signal, our target equity allocation remains at 50%.
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Weekly Sentiment Report: $VIX Closes At 52 Week Low
Monday, May 26, 2014 8:01 AM EDT
The $VIX closed at a 52 week low this week, and complacency reigns!
In this article: VIX
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4 Asset Model Portfolio: 5.26.14
Monday, May 26, 2014 5:34 AM EDT
For the week, our positions in gold and Treasury bonds were flat like a pancake.
In this article: BND, QQQ, GLD, SPY
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The Gold Strategy: 5.20.14
Tuesday, May 20, 2014 12:10 PM EDT
Our models are constructed with both fundamental and technical data, and a bull signal is registered when both fundamentals and technicals are positive.
In this article: GLD
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Dogs Of The Dow: 5.19.14
Monday, May 19, 2014 12:36 PM EDT
The Dogs of the Dow is a stock picking strategy devoted to selecting the highest dividend paying stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Yield is the annual dividend from a company divided by its stock price.
In this article: GE, PFE, T, CSCO, INTC
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Equity Chart Book: 5.19.14
Monday, May 19, 2014 9:52 AM EDT
The SPY is safely above well delineated support levels. IWM and QQQ are lagging.
In this article: BND, QQQ, EEM, EWJ, IWM, SPY, VGK
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Weekly Sentiment Report: Biding Time
Monday, May 19, 2014 5:36 AM EDT
Looking at the data in aggregate, we note that the “Dumb Money” indicator dipped into bearish sentiment territory only 5 weeks. This was not a bull signal by our reckoning as the depth and duration of bearishness was not significant enough.
In this article: VIX
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Dogs Of The Dow: 5.12.14
Monday, May 12, 2014 1:39 PM EDT
The Dogs of the Dow is a stock picking strategy devoted to selecting the highest dividend paying stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Yield is the annual dividend from a company divided by its stock price.
In this article: GE, PFE, T, CSCO, INTC
Read
Weekly Sentiment Report
Monday, May 12, 2014 6:20 AM EDT
Our fundamental equity model, which utilizes investor sentiment, turned bearish in early February. Our technical model remains constructive. Bearish fundamentals plus bullish technicals equals NEUTRAL market environment, which should be ruled by overbought/ oversold market conditions.
In this article: VIX
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