AG Thorson | TalkMarkets | Page 3
Registered CMT, Technical Analyst
Contributor's Links: GoldPredict
AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. His regularly scheduled reports are released every Sunday, Tuesday, and Thursday. For more information, please visit GoldPredict.com.

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Fed Announcement To Be Pivotal Event
The July 31 Fed announcement is shaping up to be a pivotal event. I think it will either validate a breakout in US stocks or send prices sharply lower. If stocks continue to rally after the Fed decision, then we will likely see an advancing uptrend.
Dollar Rallies, Gold Slips
Friday’s positive employment report took the chances for a 0.50% rate cut off the table at the July 31st Fed meeting. The odds for a .25% cut remain near 100%. The dollar rallied on the jobs report, and gold slipped.
Gold Bull Market Begins
The MACD for the quarterly gold chart crossed over bullishly for the first time since 2013. After an arduous 6-year bottoming process, I think it’s safe to say gold started a new bull market.
Gold Blasts Through Heavy Resistance
It’s been a rough few years for gold investors. Failed breakout attempts and a sideways grind kept the sector trendless. Gold blasted through heavy resistance this week, a legitimate breakout. The danger zone surrounding $1360 should now be support.
Next Wek's Fed Colors 2019 Gold Outlook
Gold reversed sharply on Friday after reaching $1,362.20, a top is possible. The price action surrounding next weeks Fed announcement will help determine our outlook for the remainder of 2019.
Gold Testing Breakout Level
Gold is testing its major breakout level, and its fate depends on the June 19th Fed announcement. What they decide will determine if gold breaks immediately higher or if prices will top and slip back to support between $1200 – $1220 this fall.
Gold Breakout Needs Confirmation
On the surface, it appears the 45-day cycle timed a breakout in gold instead of the usual top or bottom. I’d like to see some upside follow-through and progressive closes above $1315 to confirm.
Confirming The XAU Cycle
The cleanest cycle I can find is the XAU junior mining index. Prices have formed turning points every 45-trading days since September. It arrives again May 31 and should time the next low.
Precious Metals Close To Next Six-Month Low
Precious metals have been correcting for about 12 weeks, and I think we are close to the next six-month low. Miners failed to confirm Friday’s breakdown in gold as prices slipped below $1280. The price action next week will help narrow our focus.
Precious Metals And Miners Grinding Lower
Precious metals and miners have been grinding lower for about three months. I think we are close to the next 6-month low. My cycle work supports a turning point during the last week of May. The odds favor a bottom at that time.
Post-Fed Metals And Miners Breakdown May Be False
What a wild week. Gold prices broke lower after the Fed decision but finished Friday with a bullish engulfing day. I’m beginning to think the post-Fed breakdown in metals and miners was a false move.
Monday, April 29th Afternoon Update
Markets want to know if the Fed will cut rates in 2019. Currently, markets are pricing in about a 41% chance of at least one rate-cut in 2019. They announce Wednesday; no rate hike/cut is expected.
When Will Gold Break Out?
The weekly gold chart reveals an extensive consolidation starting after the initial surge to $1377 in 2016. I believe gold will eventually breakout to the upside…the question is when.
Metals And Miners Continue Consolidation
If gold holds the $1280 – $1285 area next week, we could see an upside breakout from the triangle that challenges $1350 – $1375.
Gold Need Consumer Sentiment To Tank
For gold to break out big, consumer sentiment needs to tank. It dipped sharply breaking the trendline in late 2018, likely a result of the Federal shutdown and plunging stock market. It has recovered and is trying to recapture the trendline.
Metals And Miners Rolling Over
It looks like metals and miners are rolling over into the next six-month low. Support for gold ranges between $1240 and $1250.
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