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Registered CMT, Technical Analyst
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AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. His regularly scheduled reports are released every Sunday, Tuesday, and Thursday. For more information, please visit

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Gold Forecast – Preparing For An Autumn Low
Gold futures are trying to hold support near $1500 ahead of next week's Fed announcement.
Gold Fails To Maintain $1550
Gold hit $1565 Monday morning but failed to maintain $1550. Gold futures finished the week below support at $1535. A collapse below $1500 in the coming days would support a replay of the 2002 pattern and maybe a backtest of the $1360 breakout area.
Gold Prices – The Big Picture
With gold confirming a new bull market, it’s time to step back and look at the big picture.
Gold Stays Buoyant
Gold remains buoyant as prices examine resistance surrounding $1525. The odds still favor a top in this area, but we probably won’t see a meaningful correction until Treasury yields begin to stabilize.
E Metals And Miners Are Beginning To Correct
Gold and silver formed significant outside reversal days, and a top is possible. Gold would have to recapture $1525 relatively quickly to restore yesterday’s short-term breakout.
Gold May Be Topping
Gold rallied to significant resistance surrounding $1525 on fading momentum. Prices could probe a little higher, but I think the technicals and extensive commercial short position favor a topping process for the yellow metal.
Gold Reached Significant Resistance
Wednesday’s surge in gold above $1500 was fueled by stock market fears and a capitulating bond market. The 10-year treasury yield crashed to 1.59% on Wednesday, and an interim low is likely.
E A Wild Day For Gold
What a wild day. After reaching $1412 this morning, gold prices began to bounce. Prices were near $1430 around 1:30 when the Trump administration announced additional tariffs of China starting in September.
E Gold Due For Cyclical Pullback
Gold rallied $185 in about two months and prices are due for a cyclical pullback. A daily close below $1410 next week would support this theory, and I’d look for a bottom in the first few trading days of August.
Gold Rally Just Getting Started
Ray Dalio believes the next decade (2020 -2030) will favor gold as governments will likely resort to debt monetization and currency devaluation to keep the system afloat. I agree with him 100%, and I think the rally in gold is just getting started.
Fed Announcement To Be Pivotal Event
The July 31 Fed announcement is shaping up to be a pivotal event. I think it will either validate a breakout in US stocks or send prices sharply lower. If stocks continue to rally after the Fed decision, then we will likely see an advancing uptrend.
Dollar Rallies, Gold Slips
Friday’s positive employment report took the chances for a 0.50% rate cut off the table at the July 31st Fed meeting. The odds for a .25% cut remain near 100%. The dollar rallied on the jobs report, and gold slipped.
E Gold Bull Market Begins
The MACD for the quarterly gold chart crossed over bullishly for the first time since 2013. After an arduous 6-year bottoming process, I think it’s safe to say gold started a new bull market.
E Gold Blasts Through Heavy Resistance
It’s been a rough few years for gold investors. Failed breakout attempts and a sideways grind kept the sector trendless. Gold blasted through heavy resistance this week, a legitimate breakout. The danger zone surrounding $1360 should now be support.
E Next Wek's Fed Colors 2019 Gold Outlook
Gold reversed sharply on Friday after reaching $1,362.20, a top is possible. The price action surrounding next weeks Fed announcement will help determine our outlook for the remainder of 2019.
E Gold Testing Breakout Level
Gold is testing its major breakout level, and its fate depends on the June 19th Fed announcement. What they decide will determine if gold breaks immediately higher or if prices will top and slip back to support between $1200 – $1220 this fall.
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