15.5% above the 5-year average

the inventory won't be more than 9% below the 5-year average at the end of it

Good piece

thank you, great piece

the week is young and the month is even younger. Refill season isn't even over yet. Ok I have some time. Being perma in anything is a bad thing... Ok maybe you can believe in crypto after God, I don't know. Natty loves us because of the directions it is taking. Cyclical or not. I do directional trading on near term mainly. The $5.75 resistance will affirm the downtrend, not me, we are not even there yet wait for the daily macd, because I am not moving the market. Although I have many clients and readers I am not alone here- you see. Neither I got 2bn to get in and get out in mins on the secondary market on algos thinking. Physical is still a good thing you know. You can believe the latest Bloomberg article paid by a bank who seized production operations last year amid the industry's consolidation, talking about $40 gas anytime soon. Oil and Gas corporate debts are unbelievably high they might start to thing it's you and me we are going to pay for it. Saudis are, in reality, Aramco the biggest corp in the world is giving to bond investors half the value the Greek Public Electricity company is giving to theirs... 2.8% Lol. Call it stinginess or paying for diversification because of the climate crisis. You are free to do that. To believe in any story. Be aware most of my clients are midstream ceo's and utilities managers. For a reason... Oil Im telling you will hover around $55 in late 2023. Who is writing about it? Nobody. But you can believe a $200 barrel oil story if you are to give your money to a bank investing them for you for 3% a year. Packaging oil futures with Swiss index calling the investing program "safe haven for you dear client" or something. Do it if you want. Commodities have been my field for ten years precisely because they fulfill real consumer's needs. And you can do options too. You don't get NG12 and then NG13 and then NG1500 update paying for nothing every year. Ok maybe for the new t-shirt at the press conference. I don't do marketing or pr. I am a trader. Not even a strategist. I heard Paulson today talking about crypto a bubble just like "a limited supply of nothing". Great words just before the regulation kicks in. Commodities are too important for human developent to be experiencing extreme volatility. I m not even talking about Natural Monopolies. Back in May I first wrote about 4- $4.5 ceiling, when price was at 2.8... Who talked about $4.5 when we were at $2? Who gave the right direction? It went to 6. Wow, even better! And Im writing about how greedy we do not have to be after getting our 60% and how much contempt we feel about anything above the 5. Because of seasonality and fundamentals... Of how we first need to let the market decide for us. It's all there. Even Goldman Sachs head of commodities has been reading it all wrong for three years in a row. I have been correct for ten years. 2016 lows came for a reason for NG in the U.S. It is not my fault. Read, carefully, read past analysis, here at talkmarkets, investing.com mainstream portals. Have been writing for natty for four years. See if I m any away from the market... I am not. Thanks so much

ty, and you are right on the latest on UNG,

they should do well for another winter on covid? thanks...

you are reading it somehow correctly, U.S. LNG has to do well in general and in the long run, but you still have to keep in mind that price ratio of crude oil to nat gas will always be important because of the importance of the domestic consumption, so keep an eye on it, and finally pipeline transition will always be cheaper worldwide, geographic proximity really important, see the nord stream paradigm... Even the Trump admin had tough times in finding new buyers for the american benchmarks...

I ve been writing about the fundamentals for years, I tend not to overreact on headlines about U.S. LNG exports getting bigger every year, as the domestic market is the crucial one for the U.S. producers while more than 90% of total production is being consumed in the United States. It is going to be tricky with all the flaring ban, new building use of natural gas ban in many cities etc, it is going to be tricky to preserve the gas-fired electricity generation market share. Price will be a really powerful public relations tool, this applies also to oil, I am expecting a $50 oil barrel in 2023. Many analysts couldn't read correctly the fundamentals for many year, even Goldman was totally wrong last year about Natty and its seasonality. So I would be glad to see this coming, LNG is getting bigger worldwide eitherway, at the same time Technically Recoverable Resources remain at record high in most parts of the world... I am really wary of this. The 2016 price lows are still shaping this market for a reason.