Natural Gas (UNG) futures on the Nymex had a volatile week before closing 3% higher than the previous one at $4.69. EIA confirmed on Thursday a rather bullish build of only 20 Bcf in working underground stocks for the week ended August 27. Total inventory is currently at 2,871 Bcf, 16.8% lower y/y, 7.2% below the 5-year average. Both percentages have been looking steady and it seems like we will be heading for a shallow start of the new withdrawal season later in November.

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We had been looking for higher highs on this seasonal uptrend and hurricane Ida offered just that. The right thing to do here is to stick with the near term charts and short sell on exhaustion of the supply recovery. Due to Ida more than 700,000 customers across the Lower 48 still remain without power. Surgical accuracy is going to be needed as the Daily MACD crossed into bullish territory days ago and is showing positive momentum. We anticipated the change of direction last May and the market has already offered us more than 50% in real-time trading. We still have in mind the fundamentals so we remain wary about this season's uptrend. We now want to identify a seasonal ceiling. Is it too soon? It is, but any pricing above the $4.80 will only make us feel contempt. We do not want to become too greedy about this idea. January contracts are already trading at $4.90 on large volumes. Utilities will soon be looking for affordable alternative sources. The gas-fired electricity generation market is very important for American producers. Many large corporations are now looking for a hybrid model for their employees, as too many of them will continue working from home. Much of the office, commercial building and industrial demand will not come back anytime soon.

U.S. macro data and the Dollar Index to be routinely monitored. Latest labor figures do not look optimistic either, which will affect the pace of the economic recovery. Inflation is looking threatening already. Daily, 4hour, 15min MACD and RSI are pointing to entry areas.