Bill Conerly Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Connecting The Dots Between The Economy... And Business!

Dr. Bill Conerly connects the dots between the economy and business decisions. As a consultant, he not only forecasts the economy but also helps business leaders understand how their challenges will change with the evolving economy. He holds a Ph.D. in economics from Duke University and was ... more

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Every Business Needs An Economic Dashboard
Every business plan has an economic forecast, most often implicit. That is, GDP predictions are absent from the plan, but the business leaders have an idea in their heads about the future.
4 Lessons On Recession Business Preparation
Recessions come occasionally, and we economists have not been able to provide advance warning. Every business, non-profit and government agency needs to think through ahead of time what they will do when the downturn comes.
Business Debt Is Risky To Borrowers, Not The Economy
Business debt has risk. Duh. Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell recently discussed the risks of business debt in a speech, making good points but also raising some unreasonable fears.
Bank Credit Standards Eased--But Be Ready For The Next Tightening
Banks eased credit standards for business loans this quarter, reversing the tightening of late 2018.
Does Economic Growth Cause Inflation? Sometimes -- And That Sometime Is Now
The simplest model of inflation assumes that there is some level of output that our economy is capable of producing.
Housing Will Weaken Further In 2019 And 2020
Strong home price appreciation last year led many to wonder if housing was unsustainably strong. I thought not in November 2018. This update shows that housing will continue to soften, though not quite so much as previously expected.
The Senior Market Will Grow Rapidly In The 2020s Decade
Just as age creeps up on people, the senior market creeps up on companies looking at quarter-to-quarter sales.
The Fed's Dimmer View Of The Economic Forecast
With good economic growth, the Fed is likely to resume its tightening of monetary policy sooner than it now expects. Look for higher interest rates before the end of the year, with three or four quarter-point hikes in the next 12 months.
China Is Too Mature For Rapid Growth
China had double-digit growth of inflation-adjusted GDP before the 2008 financial crisis, then three years in the 7% to 8% range, now four years between 6% and 7%, and last year its lowest growth since 1990. Why isn’t China growing at its old pace?
GDP Report Points To Solid Economic Forecast For 2019
The U.S. economy grew at a solid pace in the fourth quarter, boding well for the outlook of this year and next.
Global Population Decline And Economic Growth
Rising population was thought to be bad for our standard of living. I want to focus on one downside of less population: fewer one-in-a-million people.
No, We Don't Talk Ourselves Into Recessions
If we have a recession beginning in the next year—which economists currently think has 25% probability—the most likely cause will once again be the Federal Reserve.
China's Economic Sneeze Is America's Flu
China’s slowdown is troubling U.S. companies that have enjoyed strong exports to that giant economy.
Government Shutdown Will Barely Lower The Economic Forecast For 2019
Even if the shutdown drags on a long time, it is unlikely to bring economic growth down much. But it might lead to a realization that we have too many government permits needed for everyday business.
Business Planning For An Economic Crash
Recessions happen, and we economists are not very good at alerting companies ahead of time. So business leaders should have contingency plans in place well before their sales turn down.
The Stock Market In 2019: Last Year's Decline Not A Good Forecast
Stocks were down last year. Does this mean that another decline will follow in 2019 or are poised for a rebound? The historical record is clear that the most likely outcome is no different than if we had enjoyed a “normal” year in 2018.
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