Bill Conerly Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Connecting The Dots Between The Economy... And Business!

Dr. Bill Conerly connects the dots between the economy and business decisions. As a consultant, he not only forecasts the economy but also helps business leaders understand how their challenges will change with the evolving economy. He holds a Ph.D. in economics from Duke University and was ... more

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EC The End Of The Housing Boom Will Be When Mortgage Rates Rise In 2022
The current housing boom will flatten in 2022—or possibly early 2023—when mortgage interest rates rise. There is no bubble to burst, though prices may retreat from panic-buying highs.
The Recession Was Over Last Year, But The Economy Has Not Fully Recovered
The recession ended in April 2020, according to a new statement by the official judge of business cycles. Despite the latest pronouncement, nobody feels like we’ve been in good shape the past year.
Supply Chain Economics: Car Chip Shortage
Supply chain managers worry about a great many risks. Economic changes should now be added to the list, with the automobile industry’s chip shortage a shining example of a predictable economic risk that caught purchasing managers unaware.
The Labor Shortage Is Why Supply Chains Are Disrupted
Pervasive supply chain disruptions result mostly from labor shortages, with transportation bottlenecks a much lesser factor. Here in the United States, imports totaled $2.3 trillion last year, compared to GDP of $20.9 trillion.
Amazon Asking For Warrants From Retail Partners May Be A Good Deal For Them
Why would Amazon (or any other company) use its market size to seek warrants rather than a better profit margin?
The Industries That Will Be Helped—And Hurt—By Inflation
Inflation will help commodity and real estate related industries, hurt industries that carry high inventories, and throw most other sectors into uncertainty.
Businesses Capital Spending Surging, Will Boost Wages Over Time
The latest report on durable goods orders shows a surge of capital expenditures by businesses. Orders are not just rebounding from the pandemic, they are far exceeding pre-pandemic levels.
Billionaires’ Undergraduate Majors: Economics Topped The List
Economics was the most common major of the 100 wealthiest billionaires, Match College recently found, with Harvard the most common undergraduate college.
Demographics And Remote Work: Intertwined Challenges For Business
Workers and managers will face twin challenges in the coming years: adjusting to what we’ve learned about remote work, and the demographic change to low growth of the working age population.
ExxonMobil Strategy For Climate Change
Dissident shareholders of ExxonMobil have won two seats on the company’s board of directors. The election “will likely force it to alter its fossil-fuel focused strategy and more directly confront growing shareholder concerns about climate change.”
Why Lumber And Plywood Prices Are So High—And When They Will Come Down
Lumber and plywood prices have jumped through the roof in the U.S. Building materials prices will retreat in 2022, returning to pre-pandemic levels by 2023.
Why The Fed Is Wrong About The Coming Inflation
The people at the Federal Reserve are smart, conscientious and well-intentioned. They are also imperfect, as we all are. And in 2021, they are wrong about inflation.
Business And The Economy: A Dashboard More Important Than A Forecast
Some of the most valuable work an economist does in business has little to do with the future, just the current and the past. And these insights don’t require a professional economist, just a dashboard that senior management reviews regularly.
China’s Economic Miracle Is Ending
The China miracle is ending. That miracle consisted of very exceptionally strong growth of the economy.
Commodity Prices Warn Of Coming Inflation—But That’s Not Certain
What do commodity prices tell us about inflation? Sometimes a lot, sometimes a little. Today, commodity prices say that global demand for goods is strong relative to global supply.
Credibility: Business Lessons From FDA And CDC
Credibility is the center of the discussion about pausing use of the Johnson & Johnson Covid-19 vaccine. Credibility is vital to all organizations, from the FDA and the CDC to businesses big and small.
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