Angry Bear Blog | Real Retail Sales Very Positive; Industrial Production Decent | Talkmarkets
Slightly Left of Center Economics Blog
Contributor's Links: Angry Bear Blog

Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Emeritus Contributors to Angry Bear include: Bill McBride, now at his own Calculated Risk,  Kash Mansori who now writes sometimes at ... more

Real Retail Sales Very Positive; Industrial Production Decent

Date: Sunday, December 16, 2018 4:24 PM EST

From the Bonddad Blog. Read the original article here.

Real retail sales for November, together with the revisions for October, were very positive.

While November sales, both nominally and adjusted for inflation, increased +0.2%, October sales were revised upward to a nominal +1.1%. On an inflation adjusted basis, that translates to +0.8%.

As a result, as of November both real retail sales and real retail sales per capita set new records:

The latter has turned negative more than one year before both of the last two recessions, and so supports the case for no recession in 2019.  The former, on a YoY% basis, tends to be a decent if noisy short leading indicator for employment. Here what YoY growth in real retail sales looks like:

About the least positive thing you can say about the report is that, even with the upward revision to October, real retail sales appear to have downshifted from their earlier strength, as the strong +1.7% real gain from September 2017 drops out of the comparison. This suggests continued positive employment reports in the next few months, but maybe not at the 200,000+ levels of a few months ago.

Meanwhile, November industrial production increased +0.6%, but October was revised downward by -0.3%, so the net result was a +0.3% gain. On a YoY basis, industrial production has also decelerated from a “boom” readings to decently positive ones:

Together, these two reports this morning say that the nowcast remains very good.

 

Disclaimer: This and other personal blog posts are not reviewed, monitored or endorsed by TalkMarkets. The content is solely the view of the author and TalkMarkets is not responsible for the content of this post in any way. Our curated content which is handpicked by our editorial team may be viewed here.

Comments

Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.