Tony Cherniawski Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
President, CIO at The Practical Investor, LLC
Contributor's Links: The Practical Investor

Anthony M. Cherniawski is a principal of TPI. He has a Bachelor of Communication Arts degree from Michigan State University (1972). His business experience is as follows: 

Tony Cherniawski’s early success in the investment business came from a chance ... more

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Rally Continues In SPX
SPX came down from its peak on March 21, then made a 65% retracement of its decline. The rally is over 13 weeks long with the Economic Surprise Index at a 6-year low.
SPX Surges At Long-Term Support
SPX reversed above Long-term support to retest the 3-year trendline again. The rally is over 11 weeks long with the Economic Surprise Index at a six-year low.
SPX Reverses Beneath Long-Term Support
After nearly a month above Long-term support at 2747.53, SPX declined and closed beneath it this week. This puts it on a sell signal with a potential of retesting the December low.
SPX Rally Loses Momentum
SPX lost its upward momentum as it hit the .786% Fibonacci retracement level on Monday. Since then it has consolidated in a narrow range above its supports at 2775.00. It was 62 calendar days from the December 26 low to the February 25 high.
E Master Cycle Highs
Markets around the world have started the year on a tear encouraged by easing trade tensions, a more dovish-sounding Federal Reserve and signs that China is bolstering its economy.
SPX Rises Above Long-Term Resistance
SPX rose above Long-term resistance at 2743.91 last week, completing 8 weeks of rally from the Christmas low.The current period of strength may run out early next week.
E How Soon The Recession?
The SPX continued the rally into its (inverted) Master Cycle high yesterday, finding resistance at the lower trendline of its Broadening Wedge Formation. Cycles require meeting both time and price targets.
E Interesting Times...
VIX may have reached a second Master Cycle low in less than a month, patterned after the May-June lows last year.
E Who's Buying?
VIX has spent the past week beneath mid-Cycle support/resistance and the 200-day Moving Average at 16.63.
SPX Rally Needs A Rest
SPX rallied through Intermediate-term resistance at 2654.84, closing short of Long-term resistance at 2727.40. After five weeks of unbroken gains, the rally needs a rest.
E The Punchbowl Just Got Refilled
VIX has been treading water between its 200-day support at 16.58 and 50-day resistance at 21.66 since January 18.
SPX Stalls At Intermediate-Term Resistance
SPX declined to Short-term support at 2599.18 on Tuesday, then bounced back to retest Intermediate-term resistance at 2665.37, leaving a flat week.There is a probable Head & Shoulders neckline that may indicate the target of this decline.
SPX Rallies To Intermediate-Term Resistance
SPX​ extended its rally to test Intermediate-term resistance at 2680.03. It has met the 50% retracement of its decline at 2644.00. Thus far it has been 16 market days from the December 26 low.
E Is It Time Yet?
VIX extended its Master Cycle low to futures and options expiration.
SPX Is Not Out Of The Woods
SPX continued its rally up to its Head & Shoulders neckline at 2595.00 and Short-term resistance at 2617.36, where it bogged down in the end of the week. These are critical tests that it must pass to remain bullish. SPX is not out of the woods.
SPX Continues Rally But Not Out Of The Woods
SPX continued its rally after a bounce from its 7-year trendline last week. However, it is likely to retest the uptrend from the October 2011 low at 2350.00 again. The media is upbeat, but the SPX is not out of the woods.
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