Tony Cherniawski Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
President, CIO at The Practical Investor, LLC
Contributor's Links: The Practical Investor

Anthony M. Cherniawski is a principal of TPI. He has a Bachelor of Communication Arts degree from Michigan State University (1972). His business experience is as follows: 

Tony Cherniawski’s early success in the investment business came from a chance ... more

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Parallels In Peaks
Most of us that remember the 2000 peak also remember the date – March 23, 2000. However, there is another peak that is not often recognized. The Industrials peaked on Jan. 14, 2000, at 11750.20. The SPX also peaked on Jan. 14, 2000, at 1473.00.
NDX Futures Are Consolidating Beneath Yesterday’s High
NDX futures are consolidating beneath yesterday’s high, within a range of 13804.38 to 13860.38. It appears to be in an irregular correction that may require yet another probe higher. 
A Globally Synchronized Crash Is Looming
A better-than-expected ADP jobs report sent the dollar and bond yields higher and stocks lower Thursday.
VIX Futures Have Been Running Flat All Night
SPX futures made a new high at 4217.50 after 10:00 pm last night. 
Nasdaq 100 Hi-Lo Index Goes Deep
NDX futures made a low of 13185.00 shortly after midnight, then attempted a bounce back. It is currently down 85 points, solidly beneath the 50-day Moving Average and on a confirmed sell signal.
NDX Futures Made An Overnight High
NDX futures made an overnight high at 13570.00 but eased back beneath the mid-Cycle support/resistance at 13549.00. 
Testing Resistance Monday
While the SPX and NDX appear weaker, SPX has not declined beneath Short-term support to establish a bearish pattern. The DJIA has been riding the up-sloping Short-term support, which may be short-term bullish.
Sell In May And Go Away!
The VIX made its Master Cycle low on April 28 and has reversed course. It challenged the Cycle Top resistance at 38.77, closing beneath it. A rally above that level produces a buy signal for the VIX.
Models Suggest Rough Week Ahead For SPX
SPX declined to 2855.94, with a loss of nearly 4.6% on Thursday before a sharp reversal off the low recovered the bulk of the losses. However, it closed beneath Intermediate-term resistance at 2952.40.
SPX Declines To Intermediate-Term Support
SPX declined to bounce from Intermediate-term support at 2947.77 after breaking through round number support at 3000.00. The Cycles Model suggests a rapid decline ahead. Prepare for a potential “limit down.”
SPX Internals Reveal Massive Rotation
SPX​ reversed out of its Thursday morning high without breaking above the July 26 high. Market internals revealed a massive rotation underway but not a lot of new money.
SPX Rally Continues
SPX rallied higher, but the hopes for a new all-time high were dashed this week. Market internals revealed a massive rotation underway but not a lot of new money.
SPX Rally Stopped At Short-Term Resistance
SPX rallied to short-term resistance at 2946.62, but could not surpass it. SPX remains on a provisional sell signal, awaiting a close beneath Intermediate-term support at 2911.25 for confirmation.
SPX On Provisional Sell Signal
SPX fell from double trendlines to close beneath Short-term support/resistance at 2934.33 but above Intermediate-term support at 2918.37.This puts SPX on a provisional sell signal, awaiting a close beneath Intermediate-term support for confirmation.
SPX Trendline Resistance Holds Again
SPX made a new all-time high on Friday at 3027.98. A new sell signal may be had at a decline beneath Short-term support at 2923.92.
New SPX Sell Signal Ahead?
SPX made a new all-time high on Monday at 3017.80. A new sell signal may be had at a decline beneath Short-term support at 2907.10.
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