Tony Cherniawski Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
President, CIO at The Practical Investor, LLC
Contributor's Links: The Practical Investor

Anthony M. Cherniawski is a principal of TPI. He has a Bachelor of Communication Arts degree from Michigan State University (1972). His business experience is as follows: 

Tony Cherniawski’s early success in the investment business came from a chance ... more

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Sell In May And Go Away!
The VIX made its Master Cycle low on April 28 and has reversed course. It challenged the Cycle Top resistance at 38.77, closing beneath it. A rally above that level produces a buy signal for the VIX.
Models Suggest Rough Week Ahead For SPX
SPX declined to 2855.94, with a loss of nearly 4.6% on Thursday before a sharp reversal off the low recovered the bulk of the losses. However, it closed beneath Intermediate-term resistance at 2952.40.
SPX Declines To Intermediate-Term Support
SPX declined to bounce from Intermediate-term support at 2947.77 after breaking through round number support at 3000.00. The Cycles Model suggests a rapid decline ahead. Prepare for a potential “limit down.”
SPX Internals Reveal Massive Rotation
SPX​ reversed out of its Thursday morning high without breaking above the July 26 high. Market internals revealed a massive rotation underway but not a lot of new money.
SPX Rally Continues
SPX rallied higher, but the hopes for a new all-time high were dashed this week. Market internals revealed a massive rotation underway but not a lot of new money.
SPX Rally Stopped At Short-Term Resistance
SPX rallied to short-term resistance at 2946.62, but could not surpass it. SPX remains on a provisional sell signal, awaiting a close beneath Intermediate-term support at 2911.25 for confirmation.
SPX On Provisional Sell Signal
SPX fell from double trendlines to close beneath Short-term support/resistance at 2934.33 but above Intermediate-term support at 2918.37.This puts SPX on a provisional sell signal, awaiting a close beneath Intermediate-term support for confirmation.
SPX Trendline Resistance Holds Again
SPX made a new all-time high on Friday at 3027.98. A new sell signal may be had at a decline beneath Short-term support at 2923.92.
New SPX Sell Signal Ahead?
SPX made a new all-time high on Monday at 3017.80. A new sell signal may be had at a decline beneath Short-term support at 2907.10.
SPX Rally Runs Out Of Juice
SPX​ peaked on Tuesday morning at the open, then proceeded to make a Bearish Engulfing Candle that is still standing at the end of the week. The showdown at Broad & Wall is now playing with the Bulls getting sucker punched.
Is It Game Over For Bears?
There is a saying on Broad & Wall that, “Bulls climb the stairs while Bears take the elevator.” There seemed to be a role reversal this week, as the Bulls took the elevator. Is it game over for the Bears or do they make a comeback?
SPX Breaks Long-Term Support
Both SPX and NDX have closed beneath their Long-term supports, suggesting a probable change of trend may be developing. While many investors have begun to recognize this, most have done nothing about it. It’s time for a showdown.
SPX Claws Back A Large Loss
SPX began the week making a new low, but clawed back nearly 61.8% of the losses from the beginning of May. But that may not have been enough, closing beneath weekly Short-term support at 2878.92, leaving it on a sell signal.
SPX Breaks Through Short-Term Support
SPX broke down through Short-term support at 2867.28, but managed to close above it. Friday’s bounce managed to retrace 50% of the decline since the beginning of the week. A sell signal may be generated beneath Short-term support.
SPX Ekes Out Another Positive Week
SPX broke above the 2.5-year trendline originating from the 2016 election in its fourth week. It also breached the September 21, 2018 high on an intraday and closing basis. Strategists consider that point as a breakout to more all-time highs.
SPX Continues Challenging The Trendline
SPX continues testing the 2.5-year trendline originating from the 2016 election for a third week. It has not breached the September 21, 2018 high on an intraday basis. Strategists consider that point as a breakout to more all-time highs.
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