My Disclaimer
I could waste a lot of your time with graphs, charts, and other assorted worthless information all intended to show you that I know something about something when it comes to this company. But the truth is, I don’t know squat about this company. What I can tell you is that I am not a shareholder and, that I am a value investor with a focus on picks and shovels companies.

My intent with this post is to provide you with a brief overview of my various valuations for the company, all based on their latest 10-K filing, so you can determine if you have any investment interest.

Past and future gains contained in this post are based on actual and anticipated earnings, actual and anticipated dividends, and actual and anticipated price appreciation. Investors should always be aware that any investment has the potential for loss, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What They Do
WR Grace and Company is engaged in the production and sale of catalysts and related products and technologies used in refining, petrochemical and other chemical manufacturing applications, and silica-based and silica-alumina-based materials used in coatings, consumer, industrial, and pharmaceutical applications. Industry peers include Albemarle Corporation, BASF Catalysts LLC, and Evonik Degussa GmbH.

Short-Term Target
My current short-term target for the stock is $78.22, with an initial trailing stop set at $76.87. With a recent price of $78.04, upward price movement will find no resistance. Downward price movement will find support at $75.46 and again at $73.02, leaving support at $71.01.

Momentum Target
My momentum target for the stock is $91. Momentum targets are determined by overlaying a company’s most recent annual EPS, its year-over-year earnings growth, and the current yield of a 10-year treasury. Momentum investing often requires investors to trade in stocks that have already enjoyed significant gains while making no allowances for overall market corrections or the sustainability of a company’s earnings.

Growth Target
My growth target for the stock is $122. Growth targets are determined using a company’s year-over-year earnings growth, year-over-year PE growth, and year-over-year price growth.

Fair Value Investing
Fair value investing, more commonly known as value investing, requires investors to consider a company’s overall financial condition including past and future earnings growth, free cash flow, both book and tangible book values, net current asset value, and many other valuation metrics. For many fair value investors, the minimum required hold is five (5) years. My fair value estimate for the stock is $47.

Prior Average Valuations
My average valuation for the prior five year period of FY 2013 through FY 2017 is $33. Earnings during that time period averaged $2.73 per share and the average PE Ratio was 32. At this writing the current PE Ratio is 22.

Five Year Growth of $10K
If you had invested $10K in this stock five years ago (12/31/13), you would have received 101.04 shares of stock with a cost basis of $98.97 per share. Had you held the stock for five years and then closed your position (12/31/18), you would have closed at $64.91 per share. During that holding period you would have collected $47.45 in dividends, and your initial $10K investment would have returned to you $6,6006 a loss of 34%.

W.R. Grace and Company, Inc. (NYSE: GRA) – FYE 12/2018 – OVER VALUED – The stock is currently trading at levels above my most recent $75 terminate target. Please See Linked PDF Worksheet

There you are, short and to the point.

Wax
Posted on 03/31/19